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Author: TSE

The stark reality of the challenge facing Boris Johnson if he wants to win Labour held seats that backed Leave

The stark reality of the challenge facing Boris Johnson if he wants to win Labour held seats that backed Leave

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This should scare the sh*t out of Number 10 https://t.co/1buBaBDotI — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019 Consider how deep into Labour territory Johnson may have to dig to offset losses in Scotland, London & southern Remainia. Some big shifts likely required among Lab voters who culturally agree w/ Cons on Brexit but economicallyare v v sceptical about whether Cons "on their side" — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019 Looking through the information released so far it shows that…

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If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general election then he needs to improve his approval ratings with GE2017 Labour voters

If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general election then he needs to improve his approval ratings with GE2017 Labour voters

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The Cummings and Johnson strategy has been clear for a while, sacrifice Tory seats in Scotland and Remain leaning seats elsewhere whilst winning a lot of Labour held seats that vote Leave. It is an interesting strategy that may work but looking at those numbers from the latest Opinium poll will make for sober reading for Cummings and Johnson. My own belief is that Labour voters are tribal and loyal and the jump to the Tories will not happen in…

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Sporting Index open their general election seat markets

Sporting Index open their general election seat markets

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My approach to the spreads is to snog the Lib Dems, marry the Greens & the Brexit Party, and avoid the Tories & Labour. I really enjoy spread betting, it is fun laced with huge risk which makes it fun, and allows you to open and close positions long before election day, plus in the past it has been very profitable so I’m glad Sporting Index have opened up these markets. I’ve spent the last few hours looking at this…

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Fewer than half of Leave voters would consider a No Deal Brexit a success

Fewer than half of Leave voters would consider a No Deal Brexit a success

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Would Brits see a no-deal Brexit as a success or a failure? A failure: 48%A success: 24%Neither: 16%https://t.co/s0S7LwaCCm pic.twitter.com/nuyJshWMl7 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 10, 2019 Leavers have played the expectations game over a deal very badly One of my assumptions has been that after a period of sustained No Deal support for No Deal and Brexit would crater like a failed NASA mission to Mars and this poll seems show happiness for a No Deal Brexit starts from a lowish…

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Your regular reminder that the wording and format of polling questions can influence the outcome

Your regular reminder that the wording and format of polling questions can influence the outcome

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https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1171358165964873728 Perhaps this explains why Yes did so well in the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum. In any future Independence referendum the Unionists should ensure the question on the ballot paper is ‘Should Scotland remain a member of the United Kingdom?’ Yes or No. TSE

This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Bercow, and will soon see the end of No Deal, I think

This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Bercow, and will soon see the end of No Deal, I think

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Boris Johnson maintains his perfect record of losing every single House of Commons vote held under his premiership. https://t.co/AIr8uBw6ui — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) September 9, 2019 A senior government source wishes Bercow well “Bercow thinks he’ll walk away as a hero, when most people in the country don’t know who he is and those that do think he’s a nauseating wanker. The man has been central to stopping Brexit – the nation won’t thank him.” — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) September…

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A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his early election or a damning indictment of the Cummings & Johnson strategy?

A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his early election or a damning indictment of the Cummings & Johnson strategy?

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Exc: No10 has seen polling that means if there was an election now, Boris Johnson would do worse than Theresa May, according to Jason Stein, who was a Tory special advisor and Amber Rudd aide until Saturday night Here’s what he told me for a Sky News interview: pic.twitter.com/bDszzB2Ky7 — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 9, 2019 Conservative MPs won’t want an early election if this polling is accurate Sky News have an interesting story for anyone betting on or…

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Changing the Prime Minister might be the only way

Changing the Prime Minister might be the only way

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One thing the existing House of Commons can agree on (it can’t on anything else) is that it doesn’t want No Deal. It’s now voted several times to this effect and, in fact, it’s as determined to prevent No Deal as the Government is to deliver Brexit by 31st October at all costs. It has been trying to do everything it can to stop it: delaying a General Election, challenging the proroguing of Parliament, and, now, passing the Hillary Benn…

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