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The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes

The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes

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Governing by opinion polls is a disaster in the making especially on nation changing matters. On Friday it was reported A second Scottish independence referendum could take place if polling consistently shows 60 percent of Scots desire a fresh vote, according to a senior U.K. Cabinet minister. The Scottish National Party has pushed for a second independence referendum since they lost a 2014 vote. They were emboldened earlier this year after pro-independence parties won a majority of seats in May’s Scottish parliamentary…

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Let them eat cake

Let them eat cake

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The optics look very bad from the Chancellor. Much attention has been focussed on the triple lock but another area which may cause the government trouble is the forthcoming cut to the universal credit uplift. The optics of cutting universal credit in October whilst giving pensioners an 8% increase (or any increase) really look at best unfortunate and at worst callous. Ed Miliband will attest that opposing austerity isn’t a vote winner but this time it might be. Unlike the…

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Let us talk about the man who wanted to castrate Michael Gove

Let us talk about the man who wanted to castrate Michael Gove

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Ben Wallace has cut a repeatedly frustrated and forlorn figure in recent days as it appears thanks to Pen Farthing’s PR campaign which appeared to prioritise animals over humans, as we can see in the tweet above. I suspect as a former member of the Scots Guards Ben Wallace was channelling the motto of that august regiment, nemo me impune lacessit. I’ve always liked Ben Wallace for not sugarcoating things, most (in)famously in 2016 when Michael Gove torpedoed Boris Johnson’s…

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Britain is among the least lockdown sceptical of 20 European countries

Britain is among the least lockdown sceptical of 20 European countries

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I’m intrigued by this polling, regarding the lockdowns I think the British public realise they work and have worked for centuries. Other polls have shown there’s no correlation between higher support for lockdowns and those on furlough. Decent historians will be able to tell you about how social distancing and quarantining was used during the Black Death or combating polio in America during the last century. If there is need for a further lockdown in the future Boris Johnson and…

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Foreign affairs and laying Michael Gove

Foreign affairs and laying Michael Gove

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Inevitably there is now a market up on the next Foreign Secretary and this market from Smarkets is worth a look (even if there’s next to no liquidity in it.) I do not expect Dominic Raab to be an ex Foreign Secretary shortly because if there’s one thing Boris Johnson is tolerant of it is incompetent ministers, in other eras perpetual incompetence and bullying would have seen the likes of Gavin Williamson and Priti Patel sacked long ago so Raab…

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Better Together: Olympic edition

Better Together: Olympic edition

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Just 33% of Scots want Team Scotland to represent them at the Olympics. This poll contrasts strongly with a Survation poll back in early January which showed 47% of Scots wanted a Team Scotland at the Olympics rather than be a part Team GB as happens in the Commonwealth Games whereas 42% of Scots wanted Scots to keep on representing Team GB (which translates as 53% v. 47% excluding don’t knows.) I suspect the difference between the pollster is the…

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Some worrying statistics from America

Some worrying statistics from America

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Those tweets from Ryan Struyk are quite worrying. I’ve pointed out for a while that this partisan divide on vaccines in America has the potential to swing American politics to the Democratic Party’s advantage for the next few electoral cycles. It has to change the demand and expectation of the health services in the United States, which also has to upend politics in America. Long Covid may make the GOP supporters of ObamaCare. This fits into a wider Covid-19 denialism…

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Good news for Gavin Williamson

Good news for Gavin Williamson

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The public thinks Gavin Williamson and the government have handled things better than last year, but then again an E is better than an F. Interestingly for me is the fact more Conservative supporters think the government have handled things worse than last year than Labour or Lib Dem supporters. This polling may end talk of Kemi Badenoch replacing Gavin Williamson, but I suspect not. I think Geronimo the Alpaca has better prospects than Gavin Williamson and Geronimo is facing…

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