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Author: TSE

Let’s Get This Party Started

Let’s Get This Party Started

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When I saw this betting market from Smarkets on Trump creating or affiliating with a new political party my reaction was why would Trump create or join a new political party? The Republican Party in its current form is the political equivalent of catamites that will do anything to service Donald Trump’s wishes and happiness or do his bidding. During his tenure as President there wasn’t an outrage most of the Republican Party wouldn’t defend or excuse, culminating in his…

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Will Keir Starmer face leadership challenge before the next general election?

Will Keir Starmer face leadership challenge before the next general election?

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Smarkets have this market up on whether Sir Keir Starmer will face a leadership challenge before the next general election and I’m not sure what to make of this market. The polls apart from YouGov and Kantar seem to imply we’re generally in hung parliament territory and YouGov has the quirk* of having the Greens a lot higher than other pollsters. Given the year we’ve had it must worry Labour that they’ve only led in six of them, with five…

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Nicola, Queen of Scots

Nicola, Queen of Scots

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The Scottish subsample from this week’s YouGov poll amused me immensely, obviously it is a sign that disillusionment with the SNP is such that people are now are moving over to a party that doesn’t even stand in Scotland subsamples of 143 are inherently unreliable and only people who don’t understand polling or betting rely on them. Researching the polling in Scotland, proper polls not subsamples, I noticed some things that really does deserve comment. The last time a party…

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Further signs that the GOP will steal the 2024 election

Further signs that the GOP will steal the 2024 election

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In plain sight the GOP is doing all it can to ensure that only they can ‘win’ the election, there’s the voter restrictions being placed , ‘in 2021 legislative sessions, lawmakers in 28 states have pushed a whopping 106 bills that would restrict voting access.’ If those voting changes fail to stop the Democrats winning the election then there’s plans to overturn democracy by using legislative means, something that was advocated during the 2020 election. Reuters have carried out some…

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The only thing we have to Keir is Keir itself

The only thing we have to Keir is Keir itself

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Sir Keir Starmer might be a symptom not a cause of a long term Labour malaise. Sir Keir Starmer attracts a lot of criticism for his failure to perform better against Boris Johnson, looking at the polling figures (both voting intention and leadership metrics) it appears at the next general election Sir Keir is set play the role of Khalid bin Barghash to Boris Johnson’s Harry Rawson. I have a bit of sympathy for Starmer, one because of the toxic…

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The big speech reaction

The big speech reaction

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I’m sure on a visceral level the speech will go down a hit in the polls and the country but substantively in the week universal credit is cut and gas prices seem to rise ever more it might be misjudged in the future, but my betting position remains the same, the Conservatives are on course to win the most seats at the next election based on past polling precedents. TSE

Keir and loathing in the Labour party

Keir and loathing in the Labour party

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One defection would be the most surprising defection since Quentin Davies left the Conservative Party and joined Gordon Brown’s Labour Party, three at the same time would be extraordinary. The last time a sitting MP defected from Labour to the Conservative Party was before I was born when Reg Prentice defected in 1977. In my experience Labour Party members and MPs are most unlikely to defect to the Tory scum, that there’s three of them pondering defecting at the same…

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If you think Brexit is going very well then you’re in a small minority

If you think Brexit is going very well then you’re in a small minority

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I find this polling very striking both in the abstract and the trend with just 7% of Leavers thinking Brexiters is going very well. When we were members of the EU the media and others blamed plenty of the country’s ills on our membership of the Nobel peace prize winning organisation, now that we have left the EU Brexiteers will have get use to the inverse of that, most of the country’s ills will be blamed on Brexit. I would…

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