When I saw this betting market from Smarkets on Trump creating or affiliating with a new political party my reaction was why would Trump create or join a new political party?
The Republican Party in its current form is the political equivalent of catamites that will do anything to service Donald Trump’s wishes and happiness or do his bidding. During his tenure as President there wasn’t an outrage most of the Republican Party wouldn’t defend or excuse, culminating in his acquittal for his role in the insurrection earlier on this year.
The sad truth is that the likes of Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney are the exceptions whereas Louie Gohmert, Matt Gaetz, and Josh Hawley are the norm and has been noted Trump is set to tighten his grip further next month which would allow him to assault democracy further.
The other attraction of this bet is that applies to Trump creating or affiliating with a new party in 2021, my expectation is that if in the future Trump does create or affiliate with a new party it will be likely to be after the 2022 midterms, so backing No in this bet is a no brainer for me.