politicalbetting.com

Ever since the Russian invasion I’ve been asked several time by friends and family if there is betting on the outcome. Quite rightly: There is not. However, while I appreciate some people might find even this column too close to the line, I want to discuss Eurovision 2022. Previously available at odds suggesting they would just make up the numbers, Ukraine have shot to favourite status in the last fortnight. They sit at just over 2/1 at the exchanges and…

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Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race. Alaska has merged AV and the ‘Jungle Primary’ system used by California into a unique system which works as follows: All candidates, from all parties…

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Keir Starmer has it in for Jeremy Corbyn. Ever since Corbyn was suspended from the Labour Party in October 2020, following the EHRC’s critical report into antisemitism complaints under his leadership*, he and his allies have insisted that this was just a cover by Starmer to force him out of the party. While his party membership was reinstated in November 2020, his Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) membership was not and he remains an independent MP to this day. Just because…

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British politics has never been more febrile but, as has been pointed out on this site, a general election probably isn’t imminent. But no matter, there are plenty of other countries to provide. South Korea goes to the polls on 9 March to elect a new President. It must be a new one, since South Korea doesn’t allow multiple terms in office. And they operate a simple system, on the surface: First past the post, two main parties and some…

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The upcoming departure of Stephen Breyer, the oldest judge on the US Supreme Court and one of three progressive judges, has triggered a frenzy of speculation on who will get the nod to replace him. Ordinarily I avoid markets like this like the plague, since they are so dependent on the whims of a single person whose mind we cannot know. But Supreme Court watchers have become extremely good at this game, and I might make an exception here. The…

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Double digit poll deficits. The Parliamentary Party in open civil war*. On the wrong side of the public on the biggest issues of the day. Yes: October 2016 was a terrible time for Labour to defend a by-election in Batley and Spen. They won 86% of the vote. There’s no mystery as to why this is. With the by-election triggered by the murder of Jo Cox every mainstream party stood aside, with only minor parties and independents opposing Labour on…

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Good evening, Mr Bond. I know you like a flutter, and that’s why I designed my latest scheme just for you. It began with a betting market. So simple, yet so temping. Who will be the next actor to play 007? The entertainment press loves discussing it, generating an endless supply of speculation and punters my way. Better yet, the options are endless. Maybe it will be a woman this time, as recent films have hinted? Or the first black…

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In betting, both sides have intrinsic advantages. Punters get to pick and choose their bets, waiting for the bookie to make an error. The bookie gets to write the terms of the bet, from odds to wording and so on. Importantly, they can offer bets on only half of a market – letting people bet on some outcomes but not others. I wrote over Christmas how I sometimes dream of PredictIt being opened up to Brits. Another, even less likely,…

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