politicalbetting.com

It’s hard to believe these days, but London used to be a swing city politically. Labour tended to have an edge, but the Tories were frequently hot on their heels. The ‘popular vote’ across local elections in the city was frequently within a couple of percentage points, such as the 1990, 2002, and 2006 elections. In 2006 the Tories even swept control of half a dozen councils off Labour and governed 14 of the city’s 32 boroughs (Labour controlled 7,…

Read More Read More

Back in 2020 there was a lot of pre-election excitement about Texas flipping blue. But on election day and onwards the attention turned to events in Georgia. Democrats hadn’t come within 5% of winning the state since the Clinton era (won in ’92, just lost in ’96) but Democrats won it by the narrowest of margins. Then, after both senate seats went to run-offs, they flipped them both too. The reason was widely held to have been, in no small…

Read More Read More

Ever since the Russian invasion I’ve been asked several time by friends and family if there is betting on the outcome. Quite rightly: There is not. However, while I appreciate some people might find even this column too close to the line, I want to discuss Eurovision 2022. Previously available at odds suggesting they would just make up the numbers, Ukraine have shot to favourite status in the last fortnight. They sit at just over 2/1 at the exchanges and…

Read More Read More

Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race. Alaska has merged AV and the ‘Jungle Primary’ system used by California into a unique system which works as follows: All candidates, from all parties…

Read More Read More

Keir Starmer has it in for Jeremy Corbyn. Ever since Corbyn was suspended from the Labour Party in October 2020, following the EHRC’s critical report into antisemitism complaints under his leadership*, he and his allies have insisted that this was just a cover by Starmer to force him out of the party. While his party membership was reinstated in November 2020, his Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) membership was not and he remains an independent MP to this day. Just because…

Read More Read More

British politics has never been more febrile but, as has been pointed out on this site, a general election probably isn’t imminent. But no matter, there are plenty of other countries to provide. South Korea goes to the polls on 9 March to elect a new President. It must be a new one, since South Korea doesn’t allow multiple terms in office. And they operate a simple system, on the surface: First past the post, two main parties and some…

Read More Read More

The upcoming departure of Stephen Breyer, the oldest judge on the US Supreme Court and one of three progressive judges, has triggered a frenzy of speculation on who will get the nod to replace him. Ordinarily I avoid markets like this like the plague, since they are so dependent on the whims of a single person whose mind we cannot know. But Supreme Court watchers have become extremely good at this game, and I might make an exception here. The…

Read More Read More

Double digit poll deficits. The Parliamentary Party in open civil war*. On the wrong side of the public on the biggest issues of the day. Yes: October 2016 was a terrible time for Labour to defend a by-election in Batley and Spen. They won 86% of the vote. There’s no mystery as to why this is. With the by-election triggered by the murder of Jo Cox every mainstream party stood aside, with only minor parties and independents opposing Labour on…

Read More Read More