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Last month YouGov had the best numbers for NO. Now it’s the best for YES. What’s tonight going to show?

Last month YouGov had the best numbers for NO. Now it’s the best for YES. What’s tonight going to show?

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Last Sat news of YouGov IndyRef shock poll was 1st leaked by one @rupertmurdoch . Will he do same today – perhaps only if YES ahead? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 YES prices edges up from 19% to 21% on the Betfair exchange. This could be anticipating tonight's YouGov IndyRef poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 The extraordinary feature of these closing IndyRef polls is that the firms that hitherto were most favourable to NO have…

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Betfair sees £2m of matched IndyRef bets in just 36 hours as the polls continue to move up and down

Betfair sees £2m of matched IndyRef bets in just 36 hours as the polls continue to move up and down

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The IndyRef is proving to be one of the biggest UK political betting events of all time with a colossal £2m. being matched on Betfair alone since mid-afternoon on Wednesday. This, of course, is being driven by the polls with large amounts going on as different pictures emerge. The chart shows the current (0005 Friday) and the changes since 1545 on Wednesday. I’ve never known polling to have such an influence on the betting nor have we seen betting at…

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It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm that got the AV referendum right to within a fraction of a percent

It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm that got the AV referendum right to within a fraction of a percent

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Massive polling weekend to come from @ICMResearch in advance of defining week for British constitution. Maybe even something on #indyref — Martin Boon (@martinboon) September 10, 2014 Look at the record from 2011 This is how well ICM did at the 2011 AV referendum – accurate to a fraction of a decimal point pic.twitter.com/8HYgRIIDsB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 10, 2014 Members of YouGov’s panel believe its polls YouGov finds that members of its polling panel believe its polls. pic.twitter.com/2eLKSIZjz8 — Mike…

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Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

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The Survation boss Tweets about his Daily Record IndyRef findings Well that was a long day..results of our new #indyref poll Sept 5-9 are just in and they are quite something! @davieclegg will tweet later. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) September 10, 2014 This’ll be the first full poll since YouGov had YES in the lead With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with…

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Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days

Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days

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The referendum could make or break reputations Just a week to go before the big day and there’s one group that’s getting very nervous – the pollsters. This is such a massive election that their final polls will be remembered for years just as now we point to surveys in Quebec in October 1995. The main challenge is that they’ve had no experience of surveying opinion for an election like this and there are so many uncertainties. Take turnout for…

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Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

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Galvanising the NO vote is the biggest danger for YES Suddenly a victory for YES looks possible. Two pollsters suggest that things have moved sharply in its direction and there are just 9 days left. Yesterday in one of a series of radio and TV interviews I was repeatedly asked whether the polls themselves could impact on the result and could I think of an example. The one I chose was Neil Kinnock in 1992. By election day the polls…

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It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

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YouGov’s weekend figures echoed in new face to face poll The YES and NO campaigns in the Scottish IndyRef are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing over the past month, according to the much anticipated new poll from TNS which does its fieldwork face to face. This is the first Indyref poll for more than a month that is not online and gives us something solid in itself as well as a bench mark to assess other polling. The figures…

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At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

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TNS-BMRB due to be published a day early One of the features of the referendum polling is that so much of it has been Online. Survation, Panelbase and, of course, YouGov poll in this way. In addition the ICM polls that we see are the same – unlike the firm’s long-standing phone poll series for the Guardian. The problem that online polling creates is that there is a level of self-selection in who takes part. The very fact that you…

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