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Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

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Galvanising the NO vote is the biggest danger for YES Suddenly a victory for YES looks possible. Two pollsters suggest that things have moved sharply in its direction and there are just 9 days left. Yesterday in one of a series of radio and TV interviews I was repeatedly asked whether the polls themselves could impact on the result and could I think of an example. The one I chose was Neil Kinnock in 1992. By election day the polls…

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It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

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YouGov’s weekend figures echoed in new face to face poll The YES and NO campaigns in the Scottish IndyRef are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing over the past month, according to the much anticipated new poll from TNS which does its fieldwork face to face. This is the first Indyref poll for more than a month that is not online and gives us something solid in itself as well as a bench mark to assess other polling. The figures…

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At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

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TNS-BMRB due to be published a day early One of the features of the referendum polling is that so much of it has been Online. Survation, Panelbase and, of course, YouGov poll in this way. In addition the ICM polls that we see are the same – unlike the firm’s long-standing phone poll series for the Guardian. The problem that online polling creates is that there is a level of self-selection in who takes part. The very fact that you…

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A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

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Corporeal looks at the BBC’s Clacton decision One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity. Most interesting, and probably most symbolic of all is whether they will get a look in…

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NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market

NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market

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YES needs more polls like YouGov As can be expected the weekend polls have triggered off a lot of betting activity. The market we can monitor best is the Betfair exchange where the price of the last trade is being constantly updated. The YES price on the Betfair exchange did touch 33%. It has now slipped aback a touch. Unlike many political markets there are a lot of punters on either side ready to risk their cash and the total…

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Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

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Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead. Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has…

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Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov IndyRef poll has NO and YES even closer

Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov IndyRef poll has NO and YES even closer

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London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014 Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014 Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014

Local By-Election Results : September 4th 2014

Local By-Election Results : September 4th 2014

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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 168 (44% +12%), Liberal Democrats 101 (27% +4%), Greens 63 (17% -9%), Conservatives 24 (6% -12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 24 (6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 67 (17%) on a swing of 4% from Liberal Democrat to Labour Folkestone, Harvey Central on Shepway (Con Defence) Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 287 (28%), Conservative 224 (22%), Liberal Democrats 198 (19%), Labour 196 (19%) United Kingdom Independence Party GAIN from Conservative with…

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