Last month YouGov had the best numbers for NO. Now it’s the best for YES. What’s tonight going to show?
Last Sat news of YouGov IndyRef shock poll was 1st leaked by one @rupertmurdoch . Will he do same today – perhaps only if YES ahead?
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014
YES prices edges up from 19% to 21% on the Betfair exchange. This could be anticipating tonight's YouGov IndyRef poll
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014
The extraordinary feature of these closing IndyRef polls is that the firms that hitherto were most favourable to NO have moved sharply to YES while those that hitherto had YES in the best positions have remained stable.
YouGov and TNS-BMRB are in the former category while Survation and Panelbase the latter.
Tonight YouGov’s latest poll for the Times and Sun is due out and it could still be showing a YES lead. If that happens then the betting money will start moving away from NO again, no doubt, there’ll be further reactions from the financial markets.
Over the weekend we are likely to get the latest ICM.
Grateful to @GdnPolitics @guardian_clark for deciding to meet the public clamour for an @ICMResearch #indyref phone poll.
— Martin Boon (@martinboon) September 11, 2014