Cards on the table, I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. At the end of the Democratic National Convention, it’s apparent that the handover of the baton from Biden to Harris has gone more smoothly than anyone predicted, or had a right to expect. A party, more used to thinking of itself as a fractious coalition, is waking up to headlines which declare “Democrats in Array”, and is evidently enjoying the experience. And Harris…
The smart money seems to be moving to Kamala Harris as she rides a wave of Democratic party enthusiasm and her polling shows an edge in key swing states. Although one should always remember the old adage that no ordinary voter switches on to the candidates before Labor Day, there’s a feeling building that this may well be Trump’s last stand. A successful convention this week and a big speech by the Vice President may further secure the polls. Seems…
One factor that may complicate swing in key states this year is the number of abortion ballots that are going on. For good or ill, the Dobbs v Jackson ruling by the Supreme Court has made this into a very significant political battleground. We have some evidence that this is not to the advantage of Republicans. In 2022 six states had abortion related constitutional referendums: California, Michigan, and Vermont to guarantee the right to an abortion; Kansas and Kentucky to…
The Trump campaign has a great deal of thanks to give to Evan Vucci. For it is he that has taken what will be the defining photo of the 2024 US election. Whether you like it or not, the picture is not dissimilar to that most iconic of American photos – the flag raising atop Mount Suribachi during the final stages of the Pacific War (Iwo Jima). This I believe will resonate particularly with older voters and strengthens Trump’s (Although…
OFSTED. At the moment, OFSTED is undergoing a review led by Christine Gilbert into its performance and practices. Why Gilbert, I have no idea. It seems unlikely that any changes will happen before the review concludes. Labour have pledged to bring in report cards instead of overall judgements, but how that works in practice, if it ever does, remains unclear. The unloved curriculum framework, which may be politely described as a fucking train crash, seems set to stay for now…
Are all historians fascists? One might be forgiven for thinking so. Consider the ‘great’ leaders of history. Who comes to mind? (At this point I feel I should apologise to historians for butchering good scholarship to make a rhetorical point, but please bear with me.) On the basis of historical precedent it’s hard to argue that historians looking back on the early 21st century would pick anyone other than Putin as our greatest leader: I hope it doesn’t need to…
What happened in London at the General Election? As elsewhere, London was a story of Labour success and Conservative disaster. Of the 75 Constituencies, Labour won 59 (+10), the Conservatives 9 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 6 (+3) and the remaining seat was won by Jeremy Corbyn standing as an Independent in Islington North. As for vote share, Labour won 43% (-5), Conservatives 20.5% (-11.5%) and the Liberal Democrats 11% (-4). The Greens won 10%, Reform 9% and the other 6.5%…
When the Welsh Assembly was approved in 1997 by a wafer-thin margin of 50.3% to 49.7%, it was for just 60 members elected by a silly iteration of the D’Hondt top up system.* This was because Wales wasn’t an important place and the Assembly wasn’t an important institution. Blair called it a ‘parish council’ and many parish councils felt slighted at the comparison. The now Senedd Cymru by contrast is a fairly significant law making body with extensive powers over…