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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Can Labour Retain the South? I wrote some months ago that the Conservatives could not win a working majority without significantly increasing their presence in the North of England. Conversely, Labour cannot retain a working majority without holding onto a significant number of seats in London and the South of England, particularly the South East. It was Tony Blair’s particular skill to be able to win over large numbers of affluent Conservative voters in the South, enabling Labour to win…

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URGENT: Take Ladbroke’s 8/1 on a 2007 election

URGENT: Take Ladbroke’s 8/1 on a 2007 election

Now YouGov reports a 9% lead The Telegraphs YouGov survey for July, our this morning, has more good news for Labour and could reinforce the growing calls for Gordon to go to the country early. These are the figures with comparisons on the last poll from the pollster five days ago – CON 32% (-1): LAB 41% (+1): LD 16% (+1) This is the biggest lead by any pollster for Labour since November 2005 before David Cameron became Tory leader.The…

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Who’ll still be there on general election day?

Who’ll still be there on general election day?

Betfair revive their leader line-up market One of the great betting markets during the last parliament was Betfair’s leader line-up when you had to predict which of those who had been heading their parties two and a half years earlier would still be there on election day. So the options then were Blair, IDS and Kennedy; Blair and IDS; Blair and Kennedy; only Blair; only IDS; only Kennedy and none of them. This became a great place to punt as…

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Is an early election the cautious approach?

Is an early election the cautious approach?

Can Gordon risk his poll leads falling off? Whenever the subject of an early election, perhaps as soon as October, is mentioned people dismiss the idea because of Gordon’s character. The man, they argue, is not a risk taker and why should he chance everything on an early poll. Fine. But is waiting the risky strategy? As we’ve seen with Cameron and the Tories the opinion polls can move very fast and the longer an election is delayed the greater…

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Is the detail from ICM a life-line for Cameron?

Is the detail from ICM a life-line for Cameron?

Should the Guardian’s pollster have followed the Mori approach? Reproduced above is the detailed finding from the Guardian’s ICM poll that was played big by the paper yesterday and which has sent shock waves throughout the Tory party. It also has been covered extensively in other parts of the media and was the main reason why William Hill opened its “next Tory leader” market. Yet looking at the options that were put respondents were not offered the chance in both…

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Is Labour being complacent about the by elections?

Is Labour being complacent about the by elections?

Can Brown really take much comfort from this? With all the focus over the past five or six days being on the Tory failure in last Thursday’s by elections to make any progress there has been almost no scrutiny of the Labour numbers. Reproduced above are the main party performances in the four by elections that Labour has had to defend since the general election. While not wanting to sound like William Rees-Mogg the votes from Sedgefield last Thursday were…

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Hills open a “next Tory leader” market

Hills open a “next Tory leader” market

Can Dave withstand the pressure? With the polls continuing to go against him William Hill has opened a market on the next Tory leader. At the weekend I suggested that Cameron should pre-empt such a move by putting his job on the line in a “back me or sack me” move. These are the prices W Hague 9/4 D Davis 5/1 G Osborne 10/1 A Lansley 10/1 L Fox 12/1 A Duncan 12/1 N Herbert 14/1 T Villiers 16/1 P…

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How long until a Labour majority is the betting favourite?

How long until a Labour majority is the betting favourite?

The money goes on the Brown bounce being sustained Even though today’s ICM poll in the Guardian, reported in the previous thread, shows a one point drop in Labour’s lead the sentiment on the betting markets is moving towards Labour being returned with an overall majority for an unprecedented fourth term. On the Cantor Spreadfair commons seat market this morning prices are CON 252-255.7: LAB 307.2-310.4: LD 48.1-54 seats. So the mid-point in the Labour spread is nearly 309 seats…

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