How will the polls be affected by a LD resurgence We have not had any national polls since the dramatic announcement by Ming Campbell but my guess is that when we do we’ll see the third party increase its shares from the terrible lows that it has experienced in recent weeks. For one thing that Ming’s resignation has done has been to get his party onto the bulletins once again – and usually the more the Lib Dems are in…
The State of the Parties The last three months’ local by-elections have been the worst, in terms of seat losses, that the Conservatives have suffered for some time. Over that period, the Conservatives have made a net loss of eight seats, Labour a net gain of six, and the Liberal Democrats a net gain of two. However, analysis of changes in each party’s share of the vote suggests that the Conservatives still enjoy a substantial lead over the other two…
What are we to make of today’s appointments? With Nick Clegg having now formally put his hat into the ring for the Lib Dem leadership Team Huhne has been in touch to tell me of key appointments that their man is making to his campaign. And they are making great play of the fact the today’s high-level recruits, Dick Newby and Anna Werrin, were part of Charles Kennedy’s inner circle. Kennedy himself has almost ruled himself out and will probably…
Won’t this all be forgotten about in a few months? On the face of it this should be the moment for UKIP. The build-up has been going on for months, the Murdoch press has been winding up the rhetoric and now the treaty is finally happening. Yet according to the latest poll, the one in last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph from ICM, a paltry 3 people (NOT percent) said that their choice was the anti-EU party. Surely if this was the…
Who’d do better – Huhne or Clegg? The picture above is a screen shot of Vince Cable handling yesterday’s Prime Minister’s Questions when the country’s third party is always guaranteed two questions. It’s a key moment in the parliamentary week because the Lib Dems often find it difficult at any time getting heard above the Con/Lab babble and the Wednesday slot is always an opportunity to be heard. When Charles Kennedy finally agreed to step down on January 7th 2006…
What’s the chance of either Dave or Gord being ousted? One of the bets I placed in the immediate aftermath of the Brown “no election” declaration was in Betfair’s “Next General Election – party leaders†market. Here you have to predict which of the Ming, Gord and Dave will still be there on polling day and at the time I suggested betting against, by laying, all three still being in post. That bet seemed to offer the most options and…
A guest article by Blair Freebairn The Pirahã tribe of the Amazon has words for one, two and many. Number-wise that’s it. The count for an STV Pirahã election would be fun. The Romans didn’t have the digit zero and their arithmetic was mind-bogglingly horrible; yet imperial Rome seemed to muddle through. Yet all languages seem to have the same basic 10 words for colours. Maps have been around since before writing let alone number systems. We are not hard…
Ming’s preferred choice said to be not running Kennedy “unlikely to run” Cable won’t stand – “an older candidate is not electable” BBC says Kramer and Davey have ruled themselves out Webb says he has sufficient signatures Hemming reportedly has 5 out of the 7 nominations needed The race to succeed Ming is now taking shape, and unless John Hemming can secure the required seven signatures from fellow MPs, it’s starting to look less likely that anyone will enter the…