Con 40 (+1), Lab 35 (-2) Lib Dem 18 (+2) The March Political Monitor out today from Ipsos MORI shows the Conservatives with a 5 point lead in voting intention, ahead of Labour on 35 and the Lib Dems on 18. The Tory lead is thus up three when compared to the February poll. Elsewhere in the poll, net personal ratings were -39 for the government, -31 for Brown, +4 for Cameron, and -7 for Clegg. The quota sample was…
PPP poll shows him ahead by 45-43, trails 49-38 among white voters A poll out today for Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania shows Obama now leading in a state where Clinton has been enjoying comfortable leads. As ever though, the question is how reliable PPP is as a pollster, and whether this is a reliable indicator or should be taken with a pinch of salt. Obama is currently available at 3.1 to win the Keystone State on 22 April, so…
The Teflon Taoiseach calls it a day – Finance Minister Cowen 1.06 to succeed him Irish politics is set for major change following Bertie Ahern’s announcement today that he will step down as Prime Minister and Fianna Fáil leader on 6th May. Ahern has been a giant of the modern Irish scene, having been Taoiseach since 1997 and the first three-time election winner since De Valera, as well as playing a major role in the peace process in Northern Ireland….
Do the “April fool” video and stealing policies smack of desperation? With just over a month to go and yesterday’s YouGov poll confirming that Livingstone has a lot of ground to make up, it’s starting to look as though the Mayor recognises the scale of his task means that almost any tactic can be tried in order to win votes. At last night’s debate, he said to Johnson: “I’m stealing your policies. What sort of idiot, when they hear a…
Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+1) Lib Dem 17 (n/c) A poll out tonight by ComRes for the Independent shows a lead of seven points for the Conservatives, down by four since the previous poll. Fieldwork was 28-30 March and the unweighted base was 1004 respondents. The Tories are down by three on 38 percent, Labour up by one to 31, and the Lib Dems are unchanged on 17 – it remains to be seen what impact Nick Clegg’s interview…
Boris 47, Ken 37, Brian 10 – Boris leads 56-44 after second preferences A new poll out today for the Evening Standard / ITV London Tonight shows Boris Johnson, who officially opened his campaign today, with a 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone, while the Lib Dems’ Brian Paddick trails on 10% of first preferences. After re-allocating second preferences, this translates into a 12-point lead for Boris of 56-44, or a swing of about 11% from the performance of Steve Norris…
Politics in the newspapers as Summer Time begins The Sunday Times reports that a leaked Home Office memo shows that hundreds of illegal immigrants are working in care homes in the UK, while Brown has been condemned as “stilted and lacking personality” by one of his own Downing Street insiders. According to The Mail on Sunday, Westminster insiders privately predict that the scale of the expenditure on refurbishing his residence could be the final straw for the beleaguered Speaker, following…
Can we repeat our 2007 success? One of the down-sides of political betting is that unlike racing or football or other sporting events you very rarely get the chance to cheer your choice on while an event is running. It’s all rather cold and mechanistic apart from, that is the budget. Above is a list of spread markets from Sporting Index. Here you look at the list and decide whether Darling is going to say more or less of the…