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Could the Coalition fight as “The Coalition”

Could the Coalition fight as “The Coalition”

This Week after 10 minutes What do we think of Portillo’s prediction? In a lively discussion on BBC2’s “This Week” Michael Portillio made two very interesting predictions – first that EdM would be the next leader of the Labour party and second, that the two coalition parties would go into the next election campaigning under the banner of “The Coalition”. Unless the whole arrangement falls flat, which is always a possibility, we are talking about what could happen in 2015…

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Should Osborne be creating new QUANGOs?

Should Osborne be creating new QUANGOs?

Is this what Blair/Brown did? The announcement by George Osborne that he’s setting up the grandly titled “Office for Tax Simplification (OTS) sounds all well and good. The objective appears a good one and the announcement itself provides a further peg to have a go “at the last lot”. But isn’t the manner of today’s development straight out of the NuLab playbook? You identify a “good cause” and look as though you are trying to address it through the setting…

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Will Cassandra the octopus call it right Down Under?

Will Cassandra the octopus call it right Down Under?

Alexander Drake previews the 21st August Australian election Australia has just started its 2010 election campaign, with the big day on Saturday 21 August. Much has happened in Australian politics since I last wrote an article for PB.com in the lead up to the 2007 federal election. Since then: For much of the 2007-2010 parliamentary term, Kevin Rudd enjoyed stellar heights of polling popularity for an unusually long period of time; The Liberal Party, having lost its long-term leader John…

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How open is the Labour Party to persuasion?

How open is the Labour Party to persuasion?

Is this now a contest between the brothers? Early on in the Labour leadership battle, Mike drew what I thought was potentially a good analogy between David Cameron’s succesful campaign for the Tory leadership in 2005 and Andy Burnham’s candidature for Labour this time round. Young Burnham, he surmised, could turn out to be the Cameron of this campaign – a relative unknown coming from behind to win while better-known front-runners faltered. As it is, Burnham has hardly achieved lift-off.  …

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So what do we think?

So what do we think?

How much of the reform programme will get through? Nick Clegg has just made his statement on the electoral reform package which contains a few surprises and some measures that were heavily trailed. Jack Straw responded forcefully for Labour and we saw the first part of his thinking on how they might try to oppose what was in Labour’s manifesto – the commitment to a referendum on AV. This is going to be tricky for Labour The plan is for…

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Could AV end up destroying the Lib Dems?

Could AV end up destroying the Lib Dems?

2010 seats with AV AV Actual CONSERVATIVES 282 307 LABOUR 262 258 LIB DEMS 79 57 SNP/PC 8 9 OTH/NI 19 19 Would the new system favour the big two? The table is one of a number of projections that have been made on what the outcome of the 2010 general election would have been if it had been held with the Alternative Vote electoral system. The numbers, from Rawnsley’s piece in the Observer, are based on polling data to…

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The AV thread

The AV thread

I’ve taken it down because I’m not confident about my interpretation of the figures on which it was based. I’m on holiday and don’t have access to my notes. Apologies. Mike Smithson