Is he more important as a foil for Romney? Nothing would make me happier than for Our Genial Host to better his May 2005 50/1 bet on Barack Obama to become the next POTUS by seeing Jon Huntsman win him the 200/1 bet made in November 2008. I still don’t think it likely – the Republican Party has not yet served its ‘Time in the Wilderness’ and been brought back round to the hungry pragmatism that oppositions need to generate…
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Ladbrokes Will this be a Glasgow East – or a Glenrothes? There’s just one day of campaigning left before the polls open in what’s becoming a hard-fought by-election in Inverclyde – on paper, an easy hold for Labour, but that was before May’s Holyrood election saw most of the Scottish electoral map repainted in SNP yellow, and it goes without saying that a poor result here will put even more pressure on Ed Miliband. Political big guns have been visiting…
Is detoxification harder when the party is in power? One of the lessons from the 2005-2010 Parliament was the need for the Conservative Party to go much further in tackling its image problem – “detoxifying†its brand – before it was able to develop (or at least articulate) a detailed programme of serious policy commitments. This was a strategic decision taken long before the economic collapse resulted in the parties necessarily having to rethink their policy goals. The evidence from…
Henry G on Tuesday There is nothing more terrifying in politics than middle class women. Men grumble, shout at the telly or newspaper, frequently swear and eventually forget what was bothering them. Middle class women are entirely different. They get organised, set up campaign groups, use the internet, issue press releases, harangue their MPs and challenge national politicians in front of the nation’s media without batting an eyelid. And they remember. As Sir Humphrey would point out, David Cameron and…
Ipsos MORI’s research over the past few general elections has shown that voters themselves placed more weight on the parties’ policies (46%, for example in 2005) than on the image of the leader (31%) or party image (23%) when deciding how to vote. 2010 was different. Even before the leadership debates, in February 2010 the public were giving equal weight to the importance of leaders and policies in their voting decision. The question looking ahead is whether the increasing prominence…
Press Association via Yahoo News Police seek possession of speeding tape As trailed by Guido, the Sunday Times is reporting that it has been ordered by a judge to hand over to Essex Police a recording of Huhne and ex-wife Vicky Pryce discussing the speeding allegations – although the paper is said to be considering an appeal. If the police manage to obtain the tape, this could bring matters much further forward – will the tape bring new material to…
The Friday column by Henry G Manson Yesterday Mike asked if the NHS changes are helping Nick Clegg’s party? They don’t appear to be in terms of substantially changing the opinion polls for the yellows which is scraping around 8-12% depending on which poll you look at. However I am increasingly of the view the NHS will bear fruit in future elections and that a fair few Labour people to consider tactically voting for them to hurt Conservatives again in…