Will this be a Glasgow East – or a Glenrothes?
There’s just one day of campaigning left before the polls open in what’s becoming a hard-fought by-election in Inverclyde – on paper, an easy hold for Labour, but that was before May’s Holyrood election saw most of the Scottish electoral map repainted in SNP yellow, and it goes without saying that a poor result here will put even more pressure on Ed Miliband.
Political big guns have been visiting the constituency, in the shape of Alex Salmond, both Milibands, Gordon Brown, and soon to be ex-leader Iain Gray, as well as Ed Balls. Posters on PB have been hinting at a tightening race, while the Guardian’s Scottish correspondent reports “growing suspicion” that the SNP could pull off a remarkable win, having fallen about 500 votes short in the equivalent Holyrood seat last month.
Ladbrokes have provided a range of markets for the by-election, with the winner market above. I note however that as at Tuesday night, the SNP are a significantly longer price on Betfair, available to back at 6 or 5/1 in “old money”. As well as this, you can also bet with Ladbrokes on the turnout (I like the look of under 40% at 5/6), as well as the size of the Labour majority and a handicap market.
This may well be one of the last elections to bet on for a while, unless your “international net” spreads quite wide, so have you had a punt and who’s your money on? Might you be tempted to make this your first foray into betting on politics?
Entries for the Inverclyde election game close at 7pm BST today.