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Will the race for the White House be over before the debates are?

Will the race for the White House be over before the debates are?

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Edmund in Tokyo’s inaugural guest slot If the US presidential election were held tomorrow, it looks fairly clear who would win. Nate Silver’s “Nowcast”, showing his model’s estimate of the probability of an Obama win would be if the election day polls were the same as the polls today, currently stands at 95.8%. Neither Silver nor the betting markets currently think an Obama win in November is anything like that likely. Silver’s forecast for the actual election stands at a…

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Have any of the parties pitched their tent in the right field?

Have any of the parties pitched their tent in the right field?

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Henry G Manson on core vote versus anti-core vote There’s a good article from David Clark, Robin Cook’s former adviser at the website Shifting Grounds. It really caught my eye this week. It sums up the perennial challenge facing political parties – where to pitch your electoral tent. It’s worth reading in full: Clark points out that political parties seeking power can’t simply afford a core vote approach. So far so obvious. But he insists neither can it afford an…

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PaddyPower’s White House Race betting preview

PaddyPower’s White House Race betting preview

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A bookmaker guest slot The race to become the world’s most powerful man is well under way. The next United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday 6 November and two men – Barack Obama and Mitt Romney – will go head to head for the biggest prize in politics. Can Obama secure a second term for the Democrats? Or will Romney capitalise on the disappointing economy and become the 45th President of the United States? Obama the favourite…

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Why do Governments always seem to lose popularity?

Why do Governments always seem to lose popularity?

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A guest slot by Nick Palmer During the last Government, Mike used to point out that governing parties in Britain nearly always decline in popularity after the initial honeymoon, so the writing was on the wall for Labour after 2005. On the Labour side we didn’t like to admit it, but we knew he was right. With rare exceptions (1983 after the Falklands is the glaring one), governments are on the slide within a few years and never really recover….

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Who are the Olympic political winners and losers?

Who are the Olympic political winners and losers?

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Henry G Manson gives his picks Biggest losers Bronze medal: David Cameron. Booed at the boxing, initially on the back-foot over sports funding and school physical activity and recovered with some steady media performances. However that’s nothing to really worry the PM. What will disappoint so much is to have been so overshadowed in these games by Boris Johnson. Prime Ministers don’t often get such a rare window of good news and national attention. The combination with other events leading…

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How long can the Liberal Democrats keep losing members?

How long can the Liberal Democrats keep losing members?

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The Henry G Manson column The news that according to their accounts Liberal Democrats have lost a quarter () of their party membership in just 12 months means it is probably now worth asking how much more can the yellow party can take? The figures highlighted by Crick show there were 48,934 members at the end of 2011 compared with 65,038 a year before. This is alongside two years of poor local election results taking the party to fewer than…

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Who do we want to be our MP and how are we going to get them?

Who do we want to be our MP and how are we going to get them?

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Henry G Manson’s weekly column It struck me as odd the other day. A few weeks back Labour said it needed to attract more working class parliamentary candidates. This is a worthwhile aim given the professionalisation of British politics and even more so for a party set-up by organised labour. It was something of an embarrassment when an aspiring parliamentary candidate in solid working class strongholds has a £5000 personalised number plate. We need to move away from that. So…

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Whose bright idea was elected Police and Crime Commissioners?

Whose bright idea was elected Police and Crime Commissioners?

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Henry G Manson on November’s elections I’m increasingly concerned about the police commissioner elections. As Michael Crick explains the legal requirements are so stringent that even Falklands hero Simon Weston is unable to stand. Despite being one of Britain’s best known veterans the fact that he broke the law as a minor and as such had a criminal record. Crick believes that under legislation last year anyone with a record will be open to legal challenge. If this is the…

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