Is it going to be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories? Reading too much into by-election results is a very dangerous game. There aren’t very many of them and where and when they take place is close to a random process. However, having said all that, there’s one aspect of the recent Norwich North by-election result which could be an important pointer and which hasn’t had much coverage: the scale of the collapse of support for…
What’s happened to the Lib Dem by-election machine? Another by-election has come and gone with another Labour loss and another gain for the Conservatives, only their second since losing power twelve years ago. That rarity says much about the Conservatives but it’s not as if governments haven’t lost by-elections in that time, it’s just that the Tories didn’t win them. The Lib Dems were the acknowledged masters of parliamentary by-elections. From the heady days of the Alliance onwards, a steady…
CON 38% (+2) LAB 26% (+2) LD 20% (+1) The Big Parties’ recovery continues The main impact of tonight’s Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times is on the minor parties, which are down 5%, with the gap between Tories and Labour steady at 12%, both up two points on the last Populus poll back on 10 June, shortly after the European elections and at the height of the expenses scandal. The 16% finding for Others is still high by historic standards. The…
Where’s the upper limit to Tory ambitions? Yesterday’s opinion polls showed the figures returning to something like the position they were in immediately following the local and European elections in June – yesterday’s YouGov poll produced similar results to one on 7 June which had a Con/Lab/LD split of 40/24/18 and a ComRes poll of 12 June had a split of 38/22/20. In each case, all the comparable figures are within 2% between now and then. So, not much change, although…
What if the first one isn’t decisive? The general assumption about the result of the next election is that the Conservatives will win it. The opinion polls point to a Tory win, as do the bookies, where the Conservatives are heavily odds-on. That said, favourites are not certainties and a hung parliament remains no longer than 3/1 (with Paddy Power). If that is the result – and it will be if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen…
How could the province impact on the general election? As today’s July 12, it seems an appropriate time to cast an eye across the Irish Sea for a look at recent developments in Northern Irish politics. After all, the votes of Ulster MP’s have been critical in the past, from Callaghan’s lost motion of No Confidence to Major’s minority government becoming dependent on votes of minor parties to win votes. If the Conservatives fail to win the 120 or so…
A guest article from Lib Dem blogger Mark Thompson I have been writing the Mark Reckons political blog for a while now where I happily pontificate on the political events of the day and even make predictions about what I ‘reckon’ will happen in the future. I have followed Political Betting for a few years but had not made any bets on political events myself. However recently I started to think it might be time to put my money where my blog…
Is it a storm in a Westminster teacup? As long as the News International phone-tap story continues to make the political weather, Andy Coulson – the Conservative’s Director of Communications – will remain under pressure. The question is how long it can run. Mike, in the previous thread, suggests that it won’t be long because the story’s essentially mined out for the moment. I’d agree with that but also put forward another reason: none of it resonates with the public….