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Author: David Herdson

Sports Personality – who is your money on?

Sports Personality – who is your money on?

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Does the Golden Year have one last surprise in store? Political betting is generally about understanding two things in any particular contest: the candidates and the electorate. So with big TV votes. In the case of Sports Personality of the Year (Spoty), the electorate is particularly important given that the candidates play a largely passive role – what we know about them isn’t likely to change between now and tomorrow night. As things stand, Bradley Wiggins is a very strong…

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Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates?

Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates?

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David Herdson asks:Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates? bit.ly/VkNSd8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 David Herdson says there might be a case based on the polling In one sense, UKIP has enjoyed a Golden November. In the PCC elections, every one of their 24 candidates kept his or her deposit, their shares of the vote ranging from 6.9% in Merseyside to 18.7% in Northamptonshire. In the six parliamentary…

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Council tax reform is the only viable Mansion Tax

Council tax reform is the only viable Mansion Tax

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David Herdson on the options for Osborne When George Osborne delivers his Autumn statement on December 5, the figures in his report will be at best mixed: the deficit is down on the peak but not by as much as expected and progress may have ground to a halt; employment is at record levels but long-term unemployment is also rising; above all, while growth returned to the UK economy in Q3, the annual performance has been well below expectations and…

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November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

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What are we to make of the dismal turnout? The November 2012 elections were meant to go down in history as the start of a brave new era of direct democracy. They will go down in history but not for that reason. The May referendums put the first dent in the plan, when all the cities bar Bristol voted down the mayoral option. The second, and more significant, hit was delivered by the mass abstentions on Thursday. While a low…

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After the Mitchell resignation David Herdson asks: Who lied?

After the Mitchell resignation David Herdson asks: Who lied?

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The Mail brings all the negative stories for the government into one common theme. Not good for Number 10. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 20, 2012 Who can’t we trust: a minister or a PC? Andrew Mitchell did not resign because he swore at a policeman. For all that such a comment might be unacceptable, he’d probably have survived had that been all that the story was about. One aspect would have been the jobsworth nature of the officer…

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Commissioner Boris? Cameron could solve two problems with one move?

Commissioner Boris? Cameron could solve two problems with one move?

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David Herdson looks ahead to 2014 In a little under two years’ time, David Cameron will have to do something no Conservative prime minister has done almost two decades: nominate someone to the European Commission. It’s a decision which is fraught with difficulty on many levels. One possibility speculated upon is that Nick Clegg could get the nod, the thinking being that the move could form part of an amicable separation between the governing parties in the coalition, giving Clegg…

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Is UKIP here to stay as a serious player?

Is UKIP here to stay as a serious player?

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Have they been given the space to emerge onto the main stage? Being taken seriously is the first and probably the biggest challenge for any group or individual outside the mainstream seeking to break in. Politics, like so much of society, has institutional inertia and it takes a lot to disrupt the virtuous circles keeping the main parties in place and the rest out. Put simply, without support, you don’t get any attention or credibility; without credibility and attention, you…

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Is Vince the man to save the Tories?

Is Vince the man to save the Tories?

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Would a Cable-led Lib Dems restore the status quo ante? The establishment of Britain’s first coalition government has had many political consequences but one of the most significant has been the shattering of the Lib Dem’s electoral coalition. Since the election, some pollsters suggest they’ve lost more than half their vote, with most of that going to Labour. If translated into actual votes, that would give Labour a substantial election victory in 2015 and leave the Lib Dems returning to…

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