At around 9pm BST, the IOC will announce the host city for the Games of the XXXIInd Olympiad – Istanbul, Madrid or Tokyo. At the time of writing, Tokyo was the favourite at 8/11 with Coral, followed by Madrid (best with Paddy Power at 9/5), with Istanbul as the outsider (8/1 with Ladbrokes). None of the three should be written off. Istanbul has been bidding since the 1990s and this is its strongest effort by some way. The country…
David Herdson wonders if the biggest loser was Obama It’s unlikely that many of those involved in Thursday’s debate and vote will look back on their participation with pride. Quite why parliament was recalled early when it was due to return next Monday anyway remains unclear, particularly given that the UN inspectors’ report should be published at the weekend or shortly after. The assumption has to be that irreversible steps were planned before next week, probably at the initiative of…
Would stability be the prime concern if Miliband went? Ed Miliband has now been leader of the Labour Party for longer than Gordon Brown was. For the majority of that time, Labour has been comfortably ahead in the opinion polls and has made steady progress in local council seats and Westminster by-elections. Even so, doubts continue to be expressed about his leadership. Labour has not shown much ability to set a policy or media narrative since he became leader and…
Anti-fracking protesters in Sussex pic.twitter.com/gywj7k002L — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Is Cuadrilla’s climbdown in Sussex a victory for Luddite intimidation? August is an excellent time to stage a media-friendly protest. With little other regular news about, domestically at least, journalists will be more than happy to report protesters marching, banner-waving and – in the more militant – causing a nuisance, breaching the peace and being arrested. That the weather’s usually a bit more pleasant than in February doesn’t…
Is the immigration debate symptomatic of a larger problem? The furore that has blown up among those who’ve noticed the two news stories connected to immigration this week is a good example of the problems the Conservatives face in winning an outright majority at the next election. On one level, the challenge is not too difficult, despite the boundary review not being completed. If the economy continues to recover, with either living standards improving or at least the prospect of…
It’s not healthy for parties to be reliant on a few large supporters July 2013 may well come to be seen as the turning point in this parliament. The economy looks to have decisively turned the corner. We only hear talk of triple-dip recessions in the context of no longer talking about triple-dip recessions. Employment is rising, unemployment is falling, growth is accelerating and confidence is returning. One would expect that to feed through to the key battleground of the…
Local factors could mean they’ll be as hard to shift as ever The biggest and longest-lasting movement in opinion polling since the 2010 general election has been the loss of at least half of the Lib Dem vote, most of which has gone to Labour. By contrast, despite the spending restraint and what at times has been a strained relationship between the Conservatives and their traditional supporters, the last YouGov poll showed only a 1% direct net swing from Con…
And in any case, it’s too close to call right now It’s sometimes said that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them but that’s only true to a degree. A popular and effective government will always win re-election because in such circumstances, the swing voters in the electorate will have little reason to listen to the opposition, little to gain and potentially much to lose by voting the government out no matter how good the opposition, and in all probability…