La Belle Alliance didn’t last very long
For those people who are betting on Reform winning a majority at the next election (or indeed most) seats this FT reports brings sobering news.
Nigel Farage has told donors he expects a deal or merger between his Reform UK party and the Conservatives ahead of the next general election, suggesting he does not believe he can sweep to power alone.
One donor said that Farage had told them he expected to do a deal with the Tories, whether it is a merger or an agreement on co-operation between the two parties, to ease Reform’s route to election victory.
The person added the Reform leader had said such a deal could only be done on his terms, in part because Farage felt betrayed after the pact he made with the Tories at the 2019 election.
Another associate who met with Farage in recent months said that the Reform leader described a pact or merger as inevitable but added it may take some time.
The person added that Farage had said that Reform held more power so any agreement would be made on his rightwing populist party’s terms.
I cannot see an alliance working on several levels, mostly because Nigel Farage has a long history of not working well with others, there’s some pretty fundamental policy differences between the two parties, primus inter pares, Ukraine.
There’s also the issue of sorting out the imbalance of 120 Tory MPs and 6 Reform MPs and how you divvy up those seats at the next election, I can see the La Belle Alliance turning into La Belle End Alliance.
The other problem is that if the Tories and Reform do have a formal alliance then it will force the centre-left to consider an alliance themselves which might be sub-optimal for the Tories & Reform.
From a betting perspective it might be worth considering the Tories as the largest party at the next election if somehow an alliance does happen (or you may wish to consider laying Reform in the most seats markets.)
TSE