Since the 2024 general election the popularity of the Labour government has not followed the path generally expected of one elected with a landslide majority, plumbing depths only previously reached by the Truss government.

The reaction to this in some quarters has been a mixture of bewilderment, disbelief and complacency. The polling is a mirage created by BBC bias in favour of Farage. The government always becomes unpopular and then recovers as the general election approaches. The voters have no alternative but to vote Labour.

But what if it is not a mirage? What if the government is on a road that leads to zero Labour MPs at a general election in 2029?

In a recent podcast about rhetoric David Runciman made the uncontentious point that Keir Starmer is very bad at rhetoric, the fundamental political skill of communicating to the public to build support. Not only is Keir Starmer not good at this, he fundamentally misunderstood the need to be good at it.

The absence of an effective communications strategy from the government has meant that government under Starmer has been something that has been done to people without an attempt to win their consent – that consent needing to be sought for each policy in turn. This invites opposition. Perhaps the simple explanation for Labour’s dire polling position is that Keir Starmer is very bad at being a politician and worse at being Prime Minister. There is now an accumulation of evidence that this is indeed the case.

Some people will tell you that election campaigns do not make any difference, but I have maintained that this is generally the case because normally two opposing campaigns will be broadly equally effective. When this is not the case, then the election campaign will make a dramatic difference, as when May’s campaign in 2017 imploded.

At the start of the 2024 general election campaign Labour stood at an average of 45% in the opinion polls, a lead of 21 points over the Conservatives. By the end of the election campaign their support had declined by 6 points to an average of 39%, a lead of 17 points over the Conservatives. The general election result saw Labour receive a GB vote share of just under 35%, with a lead of 10 points over the Conservatives.

The disparity between the polls at the start of the campaign and the result has generally been explained as primarily a failure of opinion polling, and secondly as a consequence of the Reform surge. I think that it is evidence that Starmer is bad at politics, and that this weakness has consequences in an election campaign. If Starmer leads Labour into the next election we can expect him to run a poor campaign again, and for Labour to lose support during the campaign.

Labour currently poll an average of 19%. Were they to lose 10 points of support from this position during an election campaign they would receive a vote share of just 9%, and zero Labour MPs.

Perhaps Starmer will not lead Labour at the next general election? Perhaps the Cabinet Minister who replaces him will be a better politician? Perhaps Starmer will learn on the job? Many things might change between now and the 2029 general election, and some of those things might make the Labour position even worse, but at this moment we are on the road to zero Labour MPs.

Timothy Hinton

Timothy Hinton currently posts as LostPassword