It’s November. It’s not the midterms. Instead it’s the mid-midterms. When we see a couple of interesting elections.

Let’s run through them shall we:

New York Mayoral Election

Communist/Democratic Socialist v Total Scumbag v Guardian Angel

I think the Republicans could have won this. As it is, I suspect Mamdami takes it, especially given Trump’s decision to endorse the Total Scumbag.

National readthrough level… low

Virginia State Offices

You know what happens whenever a new President is elected? The Virginia governorship changes parties. 

I guess this has become moderately more interesting when the Democrat Attorney General candidate was found to have advocated violence in text messages: including hypothetically shooting a legislative opponent and wishing death on his children.  ?

But it seems unlikely this will derail the main event: Democrats to win the governorship by 10 percentage points. 

National readthrough level… low

California Proposition 50

Shall I tell you something funny? I think the Texas redistricting is likely to lose the Republicans a district or two (which I will write about in future). However, it’s really put a fire under the Democrats in California. Turnout will be well up levels normally seen for your usual mid-mid-term ballot propositions.

Likely result, it’ll pass easily.

National readthrough level… low

New Jersey Governor

I left the best until last.

This is probably the only race which I think is particularly interesting, and where there is the potential for significant readthrough.

In 2024, New Jersey swung more Republican than any other State in the US bar New York. And nowhere was this swing more pronounced than in heavily Hispanic districts such as Union City, New Jersey (where Trump’s share rose from 18% in 2016 to 40% in 2024) and Perth Amboy, New Jersey (16% to 44% in 2024).  

New Jersey is now – if not purple, then less true blue than it used to be.

How will the Republicans fare in these heavily Hispanic districts? If their vote looks like 2024 (or even 2022), then the Republicans are in good shape for the midterms next year. How will that Hispanic vote hold up?

Well, I guess we’ll find out later today.

National readthrough level… high

Robert