Our latest poll with @FindoutnowUK, featured in @thetimes, reveals strong anti-Reform tactical voting which could cost Farage 60 seats and the possibility of an outright majority at the next general election.

Read our full analysis ??https://t.co/vFXGMH6PMF https://t.co/Z1Fvugrzoo

— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) September 24, 2025

New research reveals most left-wing voters would vote for Labour against their preference, in order to keep Reform UK from gaining a majority in the Commons ?? https://t.co/FZG7swFdJT

— The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) September 23, 2025

One of the uncertainties about the next election is how tactical voting will play out, fortunately there is some analysis out there and should worry Farage. The Times reports

Electoral Calculus compared the number of projected seats if everyone voted with their primary voting intention, with the number of projected seats if tactical voting were taken into account. Under tactical voting Labour would gain 42 seats on its tally from people voting with their primary intention, taking its estimated total of from 119 to 161, with the Conservatives also going from 36 to 65.

It would not materially affect the Liberal Democrats, with their projected number of seats rising from 64 to 67, with the Greens and Plaid Cymru remaining on four and five respectively.

The SNP would meanwhile fall from 32 to 25….

…To avoid Farage becoming prime minister, more than a third of Labour supporters — 38 per cent — said that they would vote Tory to keep Reform out in England. Over half (53 per cent) plan to stay with Labour, while only 6 per cent would choose Reform. Other “progressive” party voters — such as those who would otherwise support the Liberal Democrats and Green Party — behave similarly, the research found. However, supporters of Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party dislike both the Tories and Reform too much to vote tactically, the research found.

Labour would, however, benefit from Lib Dem, Green and Your Party supporters in seats that it held already. One in ten Tory voters (11 per cent) would also back Starmer’s party, compared to 52 per cent who plan to switch to Reform and 37 per cent set to stay Conservative.

In Scotland, Labour would be the big beneficiary of non-SNP supporters in seats that are a battleground between the two parties. Nearly half of Plaid Cymru backers (48 per cent) would also switch to support Labour in seats held by the party being targeted by Reform, while 54 per cent of Tories would back Farage’s party.

I would expect anti Reform tactical voting to increase during a general election campaign, particularly as Reform have to find over 300 potential MPs and given their previous track record some of them might voter repellants, this polling was also conducted before Reform decided to pitch the anti science and anti medicine kool-aid.

TSE