Badenoch is entering Truss territory
Tim Shipman in The Spectator is telling us about the dire straits the Tories find themselves in under Kemi Badenoch, Ipsos has found Kemi Badenoch has the worst ratings six month in for any Leader of the Opposition since Ipsos started polling in the 1970s, coupled with all the election losses, defections, and other dire polling Tory MPs are antsy. I found this part striking
Ross Thomson, a former Aberdeen MP who briefly ran Badenoch’s leadership campaign in Scotland, defected to Reform on Tuesday, saying Farage ‘offers the real change we need’. Reform is now expecting such an influx of Tory defectors after next May’s elections that they might impose a deadline. ‘We should tell people there won’t be a lifeboat if they wait too long,’ a Reform official says. Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, whose husband has already joined Reform, is considering the jump.
Jenrick is now getting unlikely support as Badenoch’s replacement. On 10 June he dined in a Mayfair restaurant with David Cameron, Osborne and fellow Cameroon Lord Barker. ‘Cameron now thinks Jenrick should take over when the time comes,’ says a close ally of the former PM. Cameron’s views are pertinent because he has twice been in to help Badenoch prepare for PMQs.
I suspect the time for Jenrick will be after next year’s local and devolved elections where the expectation is the Tories are going to play the role of the Bulgars at the Battle of Kleidion, so you might consider taking the bet on Badenoch leaving in 2026.
The most brutal thing in The Spectator article is this observation about Badenoch ‘Another senior Tory concluded: ‘She seems to be auditioning to be a Spectator columnist’ which is not something someone aspiring to be Prime Minister should ever audition for in my humble opinion.

TSE