There’s been quite a lot of excitement over the latest YouGov poll which has a subsample showing Reform leading in Scotland. This is based on 145 respondents in Scotland, unlike other pollsters YouGov do weight their subsamples but even still the margin of error is just over 8% so nobody should be confident in saying Reform are leading in Scotland.

I will need to see full sized Scotland polls from a couple of reputable BPC registered pollsters showing Reform ahead before I am prepared to say Reform are leading in Scotland, a full sized Scotland poll would have a margin of error around 3%.

If you think this small subsample is accurate you might want to visit Ladbrokes and avail yourselves of the 8/1 available on Reform winning next week’s Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election for Holyrood, I have never found it profitable to bet based on small subsamples and I am not changing my outlook based on this one subsample, I am more persuaded by John Swinney begging for Labour votes to beat Reform next week, see here.

TSE