The Sunday Times published a story about Kemi Badenoch’s leadership which has progressed as serenely as Operation Citadel did for the Germans, it really is a matter of when she is replaced before the general election not if and inevitably discussion has turned to her successor, Tim Shipman writes

The joker in the pack is Boris Johnson, who dipped his toe back into frontline politics, overshadowing Badenoch’s criticism of Starmer’s Brexit deal by declaring the prime minister the “orange ball-chewing manacled gimp of Brussels”. He also accused Starmer of creating a “police state” and landed a Daily Mail front page.

On Saturday he grabbed headlines again when he and his wife, Carrie, announced the birth of their new child, Poppy.

Allies of Johnson say he was reminding voters and MPs of his ability to seize the agenda and make news. Friends say he knows that if he were to make a comeback he would have to make a speech outlining his regret that immigration ran so out of control on his watch as prime minister — something regarded as an impediment to his return by some MPs.

It is understood that Johnson has thought about the kind of platform he would run on. Conservative Party rules say that only an MP can be leader. His allies are hoping one of the eight MPs who won more than 50 per cent of the vote in 2024 would stand aside for him. Others believe that the party’s grassroots members, keen to have him back, would consent to a rule change, allowing him to be leader outside parliament until the next election. He could tour the country taking on Farage while Jenrick and James Cleverly held the fort in parliament.

I cannot see either plan working, firstly there’s only one Tory MP who received over 50% of the vote at the last election not the eight Boris Johnson and his allies think there are. The one Tory MP who received over 50% of the vote is Bob Blackman, current Chairman of the 1922 Committee, standing down for Boris Johnson. I also think any by-election with Boris Johnson as a candidate is likely to see tactical voting occurring to keep Boris Johnson.

Secondly I cannot see any Tory MP willing to be the mouthpiece of the Boris Johnson whilst he is out of parliament, perhaps if Nadine Dorries was still a Tory MP then it might happen, but she’s not, so I cannot see this happening.

Boris Johnson remains a clear lay in the next Tory leadership market in my humble opinion.

TSE