With the death of Pope Francis at 88 after a 12-year pontificate, this header will look at the candidates to succeed him. In Italian, the candidates are known as Papabili (literally Pope-ables). 

The rules

Surprisingly, only 2 official rules govern Papal elections:

• As per the proverb, yes, the Pope has to be a Catholic
• The Pope has to be a man

These 2 rules mean that the potential pool of candidates is almost half a billion and includes the likes of Joe Biden, Cristiano Ronaldo and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Fortunately, there are also several unofficial rules:

• The Pope must be a Cardinal. The last Pope not to be one (Pope Urban VI. elected in 1389) wasn’t a great success and died by falling off a mule.
• The Pope will likely be aged between late 60s to late 70s. Since 1970, cardinals over the age of 80 have been excluded from taking part in the Conclave. This also de facto means that any cardinal over 80 is unlikely to be elected as Pope. At the other end of the age scale, John Paul II was only 58 when he was elected, which meant that his pontificate lasted 26 years and many potential Papabile died in the meantime. The saying goes that young Cardinals vote for old Popes.

 The election process is conducted by secret ballot in the Sistine Chapel.  Two votes are held per day and after each vote the ballots are burned and mixed with a substance to produce smoke – black smoke for a failed vote; white smoke to announce a new Pope.

The key factor is that a potential Pope needs to get two-thirds of the votes. This means that a candidate can be blocked by a sizeable minority of voters. This happened in 1978, where strong liberal and conservative candidates cancelled each other out, allowing John Paul II to emerge as a compromise candidate.

All Cardinals swear an oath to keep the election results a secret, but nevertheless the Italian press will publish (sometimes conflicting) vote tallies afterwards .  The other main contenders at the last conclave are believed to have been Angelo Scola and Marc Ouellet but both have now aged out.

Currently, of the 252 cardinals, there are 135 cardinal electors: 53 from Europe; 23 from Asia; 20 from North America; 18 from Africa; 17 from South America; and four from Oceania (source Sky News).

Traditionally, the Pope has been Italian, but the Italians’ influence on the conclave has waned as Francis appointed more cardinals from around the world.

Most cardinals will have been appointed by Francis, however, there has been a previous tendency for the cardinals to pick someone clearly different from the last Pope.

Papabili

We’ll now look at the potential Papabile ranked by age from oldest to youngest

Robert Sarah, Guinea, 79,  25-1 William Hill – Previously prefect of the Congress of Divine Worship. Cardinal Sarah is on the conservative wing of the church and has been talked about as the first black Pope. However, he failed to attract much support in 2013

Raymond Burke, US, 76,  18-1 Sky Bet – Former Archbishop of St Louis. A favourite of the conservative wing, he publicly clashed with Francis on multiple occasions and has said that Catholic politicians like Joe Biden, who support abortion should not receive Eucharist.

Peter Turkson, Ghana, 76, 12-1 Ladbrokes – Chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences since 2022. He was one of the favourites at the last conclave and is another contender to be the first African pope. Compared to Cardinal Sarah, he has aligned more with Francis’ social justice agenda.

Péter Erd?, Hungary, 72,  10-1 William Hill – Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest. He is more conservative (e.g. he opposes allowing Catholics who remarry to receive communion) but not so much as to alienate the progressives.

Angelo de Donatis, Italy, 71, 33-1 William Hill – Formerly Vicar General of Rome (the cardinal who manages the Rome diocese on behalf of the Pope).  He is seen as a moderate and also benefits from being Italian

Willem Eijk, Netherlands, 71, 22-1 Sky Bet/Paddy Power – Current Archbishop of Utrecht. Another moderately conservative candidate.

Pietro Parolin, Italy, 70, 6/4 William Hill/Ladbrokes – Current Secretary of State.  He is in the position that has been dubbed the “Vatican’s Prime Minister”, which gives him a lot of power. However, a Secretary of State hasn’t succeeded to the top job since 1939.  Parolin’s other weakness is that he hasn’t got any pastoral experience.

Matteo Zuppi, Italy, 69, 20/1 Ladbrokes – Current Archbishop of Bologna. Maybe even more liberal than Francis, he has looked to make the church friendlier towards LGBT people.

Luis Antonio Tagle, Philippines, 67, 13/5 Paddy Power – Tagle has been dubbed the Asian Francis or the Pope’s mini me and is the champion of the progressive wing. What stands against him is the conclave may be looking for someone more differentiated from Francis and also his young age.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 65, 22-1 Sky Bet/Paddy Power – Current Archbishop of Kinshasa. A socially conservative African candidate, he is currently facing sedition charges from the Congolese authorities.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Italy, 60, 18-1 Sky Bet – The current Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Has been talked up as a future Pope, but this conclave is likely too soon.

Odds correct as of 21^st April 2025

British influence

There will be 3 British Cardinals taking part in the conclave.

Vincent Nicholls, 79 – Current Archbishop of Westminster

Timothy Radcliffe, 79 –  Unusually, he is not a bishop but led the Dominicans in the UK

Arthur Roche, 74 – Perhaps the best chance for some time for a second English Pope. Roche was born in Batley and became Bishop of Leeds before moving to the Vatican. He is the current prefect of the Congress of Divine Worship.  He has been mentioned as a Francis-Lite candidate and potential compromise.

Betting thoughts

The early betting makes it look like a two-horse race between Tagle and Parolin. I would lay both favourites due to their age (Francis was 76 and Benedict 78 when they were elected).  In addition, Tagle is too similar to Francis, while Parolin has no pastoral experience.

I have bet on Peter Turkson. He is a good age, represents the Global South and is moderate enough to pick up votes from all wings of the conclave. I have also put a saver on Peter Erd?.

Gareth of the Vale