As Lord Ashcroft can attest by-election polling can be very challenging so I always remain sceptical about all by-election polling but there are some hope for both Reform and Labour in the supplementaries.

Best PM polling usually has an incumbency bias so is only notable when somebody other than the incumbent PM leads so Nigel Farage will be chuffed to have a clear lead in the constituency.

Labour will be encouraged that most people in the seat expect Labour to win, which sort of fits in with how the ‘whale’ made millions on Betfair on Trump winning last year.

For me the most intriguing aspect is how the other parties other than Reform and Labour get squeezed, will the centre-left vote tactically for Labour and will the Tories vote tactically?

Here are the latest odds from Ladbrokes.

TSE