With just 5 MPs elected in 2024, it’s impossible for Reform to win the next election.

So we are told. We can list multiple events which were politically impossible which then happened anyway. In today’s politics, the impossible is the future possible.

Reform UK have transformed themselves – from UKIP to the Brexit Party to Reform UK Ltd, and now to a non-profit owned by its growing number of members. It is led by a Teflon-coated populist who so many voters would like to have a pint with. It is increasingly well-funded and is hiring staff across the country.

In public, mainstream Tory and Labour politicians dismiss them. In private the fear is palpable, and they can already see how their previous core vote is switching to Reform. We don’t know how far the trend will go, but its increasingly absurd to pretend it isn’t there.

With the return of Trump there is a lot of talk of “strong man” politics becoming popular. But in the British system the “strong man” isn’t needed. Elect a majority government and they can largely do as they see fit.

Reform’s pitch could be as simple as:

• We need to get value for money – so much of your money is being wasted by petty bureaucracy and silly agendas like equality officers
• We need significant reforms of health, education, social services and tax to make them work for you again
• We need to make work pay your bills, and that means cutting the cost of living 
• We need to restore pride in our communities, our country and in ourselves
• We need to stop our town and cities falling into disrepair by fixing the pavements and roads and reopening the shops
• Elect a Reform government and we’ll cut the waste and the fraud which We All Know is there. Make Britain a land fit for Our Children’s Futures 
  
  None of these are remotely easy. Many are contradictory. But there is enough truth in each point to sound compelling, especially if it can tie in with the massive fraud and waste which these voters believe is there to cut.
  
  “Are you thinking what we’re thinking?” asked Michael Howard, to be answered with “oh hell no” by the electorate. But reverse it – “We’re thinking what YOU’RE thinking” and Reform can connect to voters in ways not seen since the Brexit referendum.

Enough of what Reform say is true for it to resonate. “Ah but the statistics show that actually” gets deployed – apparently you can now see a GP despite so many people being unable to do so.

If Reform are smart they should copy New Labour’s pledge card. 5 things we’d do. Simplistic but ambitious. Easy to attack but hard to disprove. On continuous repeat until they become ingrained. Once the pledges become the established truth, its practically impossible to disarm them with facts.

Very very few people can ever pull this off. Blair did. Farage can. Dismiss him and Reform UK at your peril.

Rochdale Pioneers