The dynamics of the now inevitable by-election: low turn out, national government unpopular, disgraced former MP and Reform already 2nd mean – despite the big Labour majority – Reform i think would be disappointed not to win given their current polling and becomes a test for them too.
Will test a few things for them. 1. Can they mount a GOTV as good as Labour on a low turnout and turn poll shares into votes 2. Can they cannibalise remaining Tory vote in seats they are 2nd to Labour 3. How many votes can they take direct from Labour
A few people saying, fairly, nowcasts don't show Reform winning it, but you'd have good reason to expect in a challenger party in a by-election a bigger swing than simply what national averages imply – e.g. Lib Dems have regularly taken down bigger majorities in by-elections (from lab and con)
With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election.
I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform.
