Absolutely this. The Brexit realignment persists, and this is one of the consequences of it.

— Jane Green (@profjanegreen.bsky.social) 2025-02-04T10:15:07.550Z

51% of Britons think Brexit has been more of a failure than a success. This view is highest among 2024 Labour voters, with 65% considering it more of a failure. Reform UK voters are most likely to see it as an overall success, although still less than half at 38%. pic.twitter.com/o1aRMap8Yj

— Ipsos UK (@IpsosUK) February 5, 2025

One of the recent innovations in UK politics is party members getting to choose the new Prime Minister, a move that I have decried as it leads to things like Liz Truss being elected by 81,326 Tory members who drank the kool-aid and ignored economic reality. Truss and they thought those 81,326 votes gave Truss a mandate to change the country.

If Starmer goes before the next election then it will be down to Labour MPs to first back the candidates their members will vote for under the alternative vote system so it will be down to a few hundred thousand people who might not be representative of the wider the country even if every poll shows the country think Brexit is the great unflushed turd of UK politics.

I suspect Labour members are even more pro-EU than Labour voters so to win the Labour leadership contest you might need to burnish those pro EU credentials as a way to win and distinguish yourself from Starmer’s pragmatism on Brexit.

When the next Labour leadership contest takes place will be critical to the next Prime Minister betting, which is why I am laying Nigel Farage in the market, the dynamics and timing of a Labour leadership contest isn’t fully appreciated in this market.

TSE