There are many reasons for not confidently predicting the outcome of the next election right now, I have mentioned them a few times on this website.

For example there’s an awful long time to the next election, which could be nearly four and a half years away so a lot can change, first past the post can be cruel mistress and we could see utter anarchy with the results if three or four parties are polling in the early twenties/within a few points of each other.

One thing that I hadn’t appreciated and has been highlighted in Luke Tryl’s third post is that none of the above is still winning the best Prime Minister polling.

If Farage was capturing the zeitgeist in a way that Labour achieved in the early part of the twentieth century when the eclipsed the Liberals then I would expect this polling to show Farage beating everyone including none of the above, this is a poll finding I will focus on a lot more now.

TSE