Rachel Reeves tenure as Chancellor reminds me of a Yodel driver, both rarely deliver and when they do it usually is a bit of a disaster.

Her and Labour’s economic chickens are coming home to roost, they spent the last election campaign ruling our direct tax increases which led to the job destroying increase in national insurance for employers.

Labour also spent fourteen years deriding austerity as a deliberate choice when it is was a fiscal reality/neccesity and now they are delivering austerity means their credibility is taking a hit.

All of this leads to Ladbrokes offering this market on whether Rachel Reeves will be be removed by the 1st of January 2026. I suspect the value is the 1/5 on No which would represent a 20% return in a year.

History has shown in recent history when a PM fires/loses a Chancellor then it doesn’t end well for the PM. Liz Truss was gone within days of firing Kwasi Kwarteng, ditto Boris Johnson when Rishi Sunak resigned, indeed Boris Johnson went two years after effectively firing Sajid Javid, Margaret Thatcher was gone within months of Nigel Lawson quitting. John Major is the exception who survived for four years after firing Norman Lamont so that’s why I think Starmer will stick with Reeves.

TSE