I hope you all appreciated part one. Part two will have slightly more insight.

The odds have been taken from William Hill [as of 24/11/2024].

Galway East [4 Seats]

This constituency is very intriguing. FG have decided to field three candidates in attempting to return two TDs, however I believe this will backfire and they might only return one TD.

Sean Canney (Independent), odds: 1/12
Albert Dolan (Fianna Fail), odds: 4/11
Pete Roche (Fine Gael), odds: 2/5
Louis O’Hara (Sinn Fein), odds: 11/4

Galway West [5 Seats]

Of course, there are 5 seats up for grabs within Galway West, however there are 8 odds against candidates. It would be best to avoid this one. I am predicting 1 FG and FF but I’m unsure which candidate will be elected.

Noel Grealish (Independent), odds: 1/8
Catherine Connolly (Independent), odds: 1/5
Mairead Farrell (Sinn Fein), odds: 8/13

Kerry [5 Seats]

If there were ever two safe seats, the two seats held by the Healy-Rae brothers are exactly that. The fifth and final seat will likely be between Cahill [FF] O’Shea [FG] and Gordon-Kelleher [FF]. Billy O’Shea gets the nod.

Michael Healy-Rae (Independent), odds: 1/100
Danny Healy-Rae (Independent), odds: 1/20
Pa Daly (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/12
Norma Foley (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/8
Billy O’Shea (Fine Gael), odds: 11/10

Kildare North [5 Seats]

Joe Neville (FG) could find this election extremely difficult. 

James Lawless (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/33
Réada Cronin (Sinn Fein), odds: 2/9
Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael), odds: 1/4
Aidan Farrelly (Social Democrats), odds: 4/9
Naoise O’Cearuil (Fianna Fail), odds: 6/4

Kildare South [3 Seats] + 1 Automatic

Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) will automatically be elected.

Martin Heydon (Fine Gael), odds: 1/16
Fiona O’Loughlin (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/14
Cathal Berry (Independent), odds: 4/9

Laois [3 Seats]

The third seat could be closer than the betting suggests, however I believe that Brian Stanley (Ind) will do enough to defeat Aisling Moran (Ind).

Willie Aird (Fine Gael), odds: 1/14
Sean Fleming (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/10
Brian Stanley (Independent), odds: 1/8

Limerick County [4 Seats]

Fianna Fail will be hoping to get a second candidate elected, however Frankie Daly (Ind) might spoil their party.

Willie O’Dea (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/14
Kieran O’Donnell (Fine Gael), 1/10
Maurice Quinlivan (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/4
Frankie Daly (Independent), odds : 4/7

Limerick City [3 Seats]

This is the most straight forward constituency. Both FF and FG will not get a second candidate elected.

Patrick O’Donovan (Fine Gael), odds: 1/50
Richard O’Donoghue (Independent Ireland), odds: 1/10

Niall Collins (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/10

Longford-Westmeath [5 Seats]

Peter Burke (Fine Gael), odds: 1/20
Robert Troy (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/10
Sorca Clarke (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/10
Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran (Independent), odds: 1/3
Joe Flaherty (Fianna Fail), odds: 8/15

Louth [5 Seats]

Louth is a SF stronghold and they might regret not fielding three candidates. Ged Nash (Labour) is polling extremely well. Kevin Callan (Ind) is a very fair price.

Joanna Byrne (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/20
Ged Nash (Labour Party), odds: 1/12
Ruairi O Murchu (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/10
John McGahon (Fine Gael), odds: 4/7
Kevin Callan (Independent), odds: 5/6

Mayo [5 Seats]

Hills are offering generous odds for both Dara Calleary [FF] & Lisa Chambers [FF]. FG are definitely trying to elect three TD’s, however fielding four might disturb the plan.

Alan Dillon (Fine Gael), odds: 1/100
Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/7
Dara Calleary (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/3
Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fail), odds: 2/5
Mark Duffy (Fine Gael), odds: 2/5

Meath East [4 Seats]

Helen McEntee (Fine Gael), odds: 1/50
Thomas Byrne (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/20
Darren O’Rourke (Sinn Fein), 1/10
Gillian Toole (Independent), odds: 1/3

Meath West [3 Seats]

Peadar Toibin (Aontu) will be the first elected.

Peadar Toibin (Aontu), odds: 1/10

Johnny Guirke (Sinn Fein), odds: 4/11
Linda Nelson Murray (Fine Gael), odds: 4/5

Offaly [3 Seats]

Tony McCormack (Fianna Fail), odds : 1/14
Carol Nolan (Independent), odds: 1/6
John Clendennen (Fine Gael), odds: 2/5

Roscommon-Galway [3 Seats]

Aisling Dolan (FG) will go very close and 3/1 is worth a small stake (£10-£20).

Michael Fitzmaurice (Independent Ireland), odds: 1/20
Claire Kerrane (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/10
Martin Daly (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/6

Sligo-Leitrim [4 Seats]

Marian Harkin (Independent), odds: 1/10
Frankie Feighan (Fine Gael), odds: 1/8
Michael Clarke (Independent Ireland), odds: 1/5
Eamon Scanlan (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/1

Tipperary North [3 Seats]

Michael Lowry (Independent), odds: 1/100
Michael Smith (Fianna Fail), odds : 1/4
Alan Kelly (Labour Party), odds: 1/4

Tipperary South [3 Seats]

It is believed that Seamus Healy [Ind] is currently polling well.

Mattie McGrath (Independent), odds: 1/20
Michael Murphy (Fine Gael), odds: 1/4
Seamus Healy (Independent), odds: 7/4

Waterford [4 Seats]

Matt Shanahan (Ind) appears to be declining in the polls.

David Cullinane (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/100
Mary Butler (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/5
John Cummins (Fine Gael), odds: 1/4
Conor McGuinness (Sinn Fein), odds: 1/3

Wexford [4 Seats]

George Lawlor (Labour) is highly popular in this part of Ireland. The boundary changes will surely boost Labour’s vote percentage. He looks set to be elected and I would advise to play on him with a medium stake.

Verona Murphy (Independent), odds: 1/14

James Browne (Fianna Fail), odds: 1/12
George Lawlor (Labour Party), odds: 4/11
Johnny Mythen (Sinn Fein), odds: 8/11

Wicklow [4 Seats]

Jenny Whitmore [SD] is one of the most popular TDs on the Island and is set to be re-elected.

Simon Harris (Fine Gael) odds: 1/100
John Brady (Sinn Fein) odds: 1/20
Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats) odds: 1/20
Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fail) odds: 4/7

Wicklow-Wexford [3 Seats] – New Constituency

There are three seats up for grabs in the newest constituency, however it is extremely difficult to predict this one. This is best put on the bottom of your list. Fianna Fáil will likely get one candidate returned to the Dáil, however I’m unsure which one is the most likely.

Brian Brennan (Fine Gael) odds: 1/4
Malcolm Byrne (Fianna Fail) odds : 1/3 / Pat Kennedy (Fianna Fail) odds : 10/11
Fionntan O’Suilleabhain (Sinn Fein) odds: 4/9

Part Two NAP = Albert Dolan [Galway East] (Fianna Fail), odds: 4/11

Part Two NB = Réada Cronin [Kildare North] (Sinn Fein), odds: 2/9

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