Another election, another failure for the Democratic party. Donald Trump is president elect and the whole world is crossing its fingers that we’re not heading for four years of turmoil and upheaval in the international order, particularly Ukraine. However, this is not the time to write about that, we don’t know enough yet about what Trump will do this time around to make an informed judgment, we can only hope that some of the rhetoric during and before the campaign was made for effect and to grab headlines.

What I’d like to write about this time is the abject failure of the Democratic campaign this cycle and in 2016 vs the successes in 2008, 2012 and 2020. The title of the piece is named “Voters don’t care about identity” though the reality is probably closer to “Not enough voters care about identity”. In the aftermath of the results I’ve seen lots of people on the left in America and Europe share sentiments such as “Black men voting against a black woman” or “Hispanics voting to round up and deport other Hispanics”.

Policy it seems has taken a back seat for the activist left and identity trumps all, black people should stick together and stop worrying about the price of milk, eggs and other staples, Latino people need to get back in their minority box and vote for the minority candidate who will open the borders to hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants who will undercut their wages. Identity, it seems, was the defining characteristic of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

In 2008 Barack Obama ran an insurgent campaign in the primaries and saw off Hillary Clinton, his primary campaign was initially powered by identity with Oprah Winfrey pitching in to give him some stardust early on, however, as the campaign went on Obama pitched primary voters on policy. He opposed NAFTA, talked extensively about affordable healthcare and raising education standards, policies that everyone across the nation would benefit from. Hilary, on the other hand, leaned heavily on the idea that she would be the first woman president and that she was married to Bill and had been First Lady for eight years, her identity was the focus for the whole primary campaign. Ultimately Democratic party members voted for Obama and he ran an impressive policy based campaign on the general election and he won “bigly” as the president elect might say.

Fast forwards to 2016 and Hilary made it through the Democratic party primaries to become the candidate against an unfancied firebrand independent leftist Bernie Sanders. Then the GE. What a disaster, all pretence of policy was dropped while Trump appealed to the very base that had voted for Obama just 4 years prior with promises to reform or axe NAFTA and withdraw from the TPP entirely. Moves which Trump had been carefully cultivating in the run up to the election painting the TPP as the death knell for millions of blue collar jobs across the rust belt.

The very same blue collar voters that turned out for Obama in their droves in 2008 and 2012. He also proposed a programme of tax cuts and economic growth initiatives which caught the eye of voters across the country and particularly in swing states. In contrast Hilary ran a campaign almost entirely based around identity, she would be the first woman president, break the glass ceiling, Trump’s voters were deplorable and anyone who didn’t vote for her was sexist. A veritable feast of identity but very light on policy while Trump was promising to protect blue collar jobs and cut taxes for middle class families. We all know what happened, Trump picked up votes in all the right places winning over the same voters that delivered Obama two big victories.

Moving on to 2020, Trump running as an incumbent almost entirely on identity, he was the saviour of white America opposing Biden who would swamp America with illegal immigrants. Economic policy took a back seat due to the pandemic. Biden who as a centre left white man offered little on identity, he would break no glass ceilings, would have no firsts and ultimately bring nothing particularly new to the table. He was forced to run on a mainly policy based platform, billions in blue collar job subsidies were promised, the federal minimum wage went up and a big eye catching “Buy American” slogan was relied on to win over patriotic and nationalistic voters who had been seduced by Trump in 2016. It worked, Biden came through with a strong victory taking back the rust belt and winning in places like Georgia. Policies won the day, Trump’s identity based platform failed in 2020.

Enter 2024, Harris inherits the nomination and faces off against Trump. This time Trump has learned the lessons of 2020, he’s come armed with policies – he’s going to put up tariffs, cut taxes and protect blue collar jobs against China. Harris, thrust into the role of candidate seems completely unprepared, she’s unable to answer basic questions about what she might have done differently to Biden over the last 4 years. In a change election her campaign offers nothing different on policy and the sum total of change she offers is the gender of the Oval Office occupant. We all know what happened next. People who haven’t seen the benefits of America’s remarkable economic boom since the end of COVID but have had to live with the inflation voted accordingly. Trump won back the rust belt and won a majority of Latino men who are overwhelmingly in lower paying blue collar jobs.

The Democratic party must rebuild the policy base of the party over the next two years. In 2028 they must offer a platform of solid policies that will win over voters in swing states among lower paid blue collar workers – White, Latino or Black. Policies should be for everyone, Obama didn’t propose affordable healthcare to win black voters, he did it to win all voters. Biden didn’t promise a green jobs revolution just for white voters, it was for all voters. The next candidate must follow in these footsteps and avoid another election campaign on identity, breaking glass ceilings or anything based on the candidate’s race or gender. Obama was a good president, it didn’t matter to voters that he was black, he was promising to deliver for them. They voted accordingly. If the Democratic party can’t see past their obsession with identity they will cease to be a serious party of government.

MaxPB