Seltzer poll: Harris 47, Trump 44 in Iowa https://t.co/ly7ERGpvEB

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) November 2, 2024

Selzer is not immune to the occasional outlier, which this may very well be. But it’s hard to view this as anything other than superb news for Harris, at least in the crucial Midwest.

— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) November 2, 2024

This feels like an outlier from the Iowa gold standard pollster

In 2020 Donald Trump won Iowa by over 8% so a poll showing him losing the state by 3% by the respected Ann Selzer is quite sensational, as we can see in the above tweets the track record of this pollster is near flawless.

If this poll is accurate it would pressage a Harris landslide which the wider polls haven’t picked up on. Emerson which is generally rated as a good pollster has Trump winning the state by 10%.

My own hunch is that Selzer has picked up on a bit of a boost from Governor Tim Walz being from the neighbouring state which is potentially good news for Harris hold Wisconsin. You can get 4.5 on the Dems taking Iowa, there were mich better odds before this poll came out, I think I’ll sit this one out.

How the campaigns react to this poll will tell us a lot, it might cause Trump and Harris to pull resources from more traditional battleground states. I cannot see the orange one reacting very well to this poll as he’s unhappy with the early returns confirming his women problem.

TSE.