Earlier on this week I said I was expecting Donald Trump to win the electoral college then somebody who I respect when it comes to polling and politics told me I was epically wrong. They told me to remember one of Mike Smithson’s adages that close to an election the net favourability scores are often a better predictor of election outcomes than standard voting intentions.

As we can see above from FiveThirtyEight Kamala Harris has better net approval ratings than Donald Trump and if she maintains this sort of lead on election day and then I would expect her to win the electoral college.

TSE