My logic is most of Mel Stride’s support will go to Tugendhat and Cleverly which could put Badenoch out in the next round (which could happen if Stride’s supports splits evenly between Cleverly and Tugendhat).

But if she survives the next round then if Cleverly or Tugendhat go out next, in the fourth round the survivor out of Cleverly and Tugendhat will pick up the other’s support which would then eliminate Badenoch.

We will find out next month if I am right or if I am tipping more rubbish than a forklift truck.

TSE