What if it’s not close ?
Cards on the table, I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.
At the end of the Democratic National Convention, it’s apparent that the handover of the baton from Biden to Harris has gone more smoothly than anyone predicted, or had a right to expect. A party, more used to thinking of itself as a fractious coalition, is waking up to headlines which declare “Democrats in Array”, and is evidently enjoying the experience. And Harris herself, while not an orator to compare with previous Presidents Obama or Clinton, delivered what’s probably the best speech of her life.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, behaving like someone on the edge of a nervous breakdown, phoned in to interrupt a Fox News show.
The pundits, the betting markets, and the PB consensus up until now has been that this is a close race, but what if it isn’t ?
What if she wins BIGLY ?
I’m not going to attempt to put odds on that – it’s up to readers to decide for themselves if they think it’s a serious possibility
But for those who do, what’s the best way to play it ?
None of the swing states make very interesting bets, with the odds on a Harris Presidency around evens, while on Betfair, they range from Michigan at 1.5 to Nevada to and Arizona also at evens.
Why would you bet on any of them rather than a Harris win, which doesn’t require her to take all of them ?
What about the stretch goals, within reasonable reach on a good night for the Democrats, which might offer some value ?
North Carolina, last won by Obama (narrowly) in 2008, wasn’t even on the radar for Biden; now it looks a tossup. At 2.66 I think it’s decent value.
Georgia, won by Biden in 2020, had looked to be moving right out of reach for the Democrats, and although the polls have improved – and interestingly Trump is suddenly trying to end his feud with its Governor, up until now, it’s still leaning GOP. It’s not an unrealistic target for the Democrats, but the Betfair odds of 2.5 are hardly tempting.
Going out into the rather more improbable, there’s Florida (around 6); Texas (about 8.6); Ohio (10); and Iowa (13) – respectively, last won by the Democrats in 2012 (Obama); 1976 (Carter); 2012 (Obama); and 2000 (Gore).
Might JD Vance be the first VP to actively deliver his state to the opposing ticket ? One can dream.
Post convention polling is going to show up very soon, and a significant bounce might shift the betting.
Of the above, I think N Carolina offers actual value; perhaps some of the rest offer trading bets ?
NigelB