One factor that may complicate swing in key states this year is the number of abortion ballots that are going on. For good or ill, the Dobbs v Jackson ruling by the Supreme Court has made this into a very significant political battleground.

We have some evidence that this is not to the advantage of Republicans. In 2022 six states had abortion related constitutional referendums: California, Michigan, and Vermont to guarantee the right to an abortion; Kansas and Kentucky to say the state will not grant a right to abortion; and Montana (which, unusually for a Red state, has no restrictions on abortion) to expressly forbid abortion. The first three passed, the last three failed.

The nationwide swing to the Republicans was 2.9%. It is instructive to note that of those states, Michigan had a 0.46% swing to the Democrats, Kansas had a 0.85% swing to the Democrats, and while Kentucky did have a swing to the Republicans it was an anaemic 0.85%. (Admittedly that still left them with two-thirds of all votes). Montana was complicated by the intervention of an Independent so I have left the swing out, but the Democrats nearly pulled off a shock in the open House District. Since then, there has also been a referendum on abortion in Ohio, where the vote to grant a right to abortion passed; Ohio also had a swing to the Democrats in 2022, of 0.5%.

Why does this matter? Because in 2024 there may be as many as 11 states with some reference to abortion on the ridiculous mess the Americans call their ballot papers. Nebraska, bizarrely, may have conflicting referendums on whether to ban abortions after 12 weeks or enshrine a right to it up to fetal viability as both sides seem to have the necessary signatures. There are two Nebraska senate seats up for grabs as well as the bonus electoral vote. Given the extraordinary mess the Democrats made of the regular election it would not directly benefit them, but they would probably take a Dan Osborn win even though he is pledged to be fully independent.

 Of those states, it seems unlikely to make any difference to the outcome in New York, Maryland, or Colorado. It will be instructive to see what happens in South Dakota, where the current absolute ban on abortion would be replaced by a ban after the end of the second trimester, or in Montana, which is now voting on a right to abortion(!) but it’s quite difficult to see it making a difference in the state outcome at Presidential level. Montana it might perhaps help Jon Tester cling on in the Senate.

However, there are possible surprises. Florida, which currently has a ban on abortion after 6 weeks, has a citizen-led ballot to protect abortion rights until fetal viability or in case of medical emergency. While much more Red than in the past, Florida has swung before (Obama won it twice) and this might cause the Republicans problems. Not just for the Presidency either – Rick Scott might be looking over his shoulder in the Senate. Nevada, it is partly symbolic because it would have to go forward twice to become the state constitution. But might it be the kick that saves both the state’s EC votes and Senator Jacky Rosen for the Democrats, even though her rival Sam Brown is pro-abortion and his wife has actually had an abortion?

At this moment neither Arizona nor Missouri have guaranteed that the initiative to legalise abortion will be on the ballot, but the expectation is that the signatures will be ruled in order. In Arizona it might be the thing that tips this marginal state to Harris. If Missouri goes Harris, Mr Eagles will be burbling about stepmoms for a month while the ghost of Alf Landon will rest content at last, but in both there are also Senate races. Arizona’s Democrats start with the huge advantage of not having Kari Lake as their candidate, but in Missouri the picture is complicated because the Republican incumbent Josh Hawley is closely identified with the anti-abortion campaign – indeed, his wife is the lawyer arguing in the state courts to ban the morning-after pill. If abortion becomes a central issue and his stance proves unpopular there might be value in Lucas Kunce.

Arkansas is the bizarre one. There are few states redder, yet the Secretary of State has got himself in a right tangle over a citizen led initiative to remove the blanket ban on abortion. Having refused to count the signatures in the submission on a technicality, he’s now being sued by people quoting his own contentions in the past that minor errors in the paperwork should be noted and corrected where possible. If, as seems possible, the court sets aside his ruling and orders him to count the petition, not only will it be on the ballot but everyone will be furious with him. No senate elections, and surely Trump will win the EC, but what damage might it do in the House where all four of Arkansas’s seats are currently Republican?

Where there is controversy caused by a party that doesn’t accept defeat and monkeys with people’s rights, there is value. If abortion becomes a touchstone issue of this campaign – as Harris and Walz clearly intend it to be and Trump’s insistence that the matter is settled show he is clearly scared it will – these are the places where it will do extra damage to the Republicans.

The full list is here

Y doethur