If North Carolina is tied, Trump is in serious trouble. https://t.co/VE59m3KTBA

— Brian Klaas (@brianklaas) August 11, 2024

Internal Republican polls show Trump receiving less than 50% of the vote against Harris in Ohio — NYTimes

— Luke (@lukewines) August 10, 2024

At the 2020 election Trump won North Carolina by 1.34% so a poll showing a tie isn’t that out of kilter but receiving fewer than 50% of the vote in Ohio when he received 53.27% is again within a normal bit of statistical variation.

I will need to see more reputable polling to back these polls up but if Trump is at risk of losing the 33 electoral college votes that North Carolina and Ohio gave him in 2020 then Harris should be the prohibitive favourite.

A more positive view for Trump is that if he holds onto North Carolina and Ohio with diminished leads then he could be on course to repeat his 2016 trick of losing the popular vote but win the electoral college. On Betfair you can 3 on such a happenstance.

TSE