Trafalgar only has Trump ahead slightly in swing states?

Oh it's incredibly over, even the Republican pollsters can't pull through for him pic.twitter.com/OIawpF4Ay4

— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) August 9, 2024

PBers who were around for the 2020 US presidential election will remember that no pollster garnered as much ‘attention’ as Trafalgar with their quite frankly unbelievable polls which often showed Trump was on course for a landslide victory in the electoral college.

So in 2024 it is quite interesting as the above tweet notes that this time Trafalgar have Trump barely ahead in the swing states. In Trafalagar’s defence their polls this time aren’t as out of line with other pollsters in 2024 as they were in 2020.

But this thread is a reminder that without the equivalent of the British Polling Council some American pollster have a partisan skew which means when analysing the polls and betting on them that should be taken into consideration.

It is possible for an American pollster to ask this question

‘Are you planning on voting for the man God wishes was his son Donald Trump or the whore of Babylon Kamala Harris?’

and all we’d ever see from the pollster is ‘Trump 50%, Harris 50%’ as they don’t have to publish the question or data tables

If Rasmussen has Harris ahead then I know Harris is on course for an electoral college landslide that will rival Reagan’s victory over Walter Mondale.

TSE