Harris is rebuilding the Dem coalition. @daniella_raz and I wrote about her dramatic polling turnaround: https://t.co/ITtBTFtmCb

Harris outperforms Biden in net favourability among those who are under 30 (+24), black (+24), liberal (+21), hispanic (+19) pic.twitter.com/oWzJmqdtMv

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 31, 2024

But crucially, she's done it without alienating swing voters. She has a higher net favourability than Biden among Independents (+17), moderates (+15) and suburbanites (+13). She is seen much more favourably than Trump among undecided/swing voters

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 31, 2024

None of this suggests Harris is odds-on to win the presidency. Nationwide, the election is very close. To defeat Trump, she must still overcome a big electoral college disadvantage. Early approval from voters may wither as Trump hones his attacks.

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 31, 2024

Incidentally, this is the first "Campaign calculus" by @daniella_raz and I! Really looking forward to having a regular spot to dig into election data in the runup to November ??

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 31, 2024