The Sunday Times are reporting that

Listening is not just smart politics but an attempt to answer the charge made by some colleagues that Badenoch is more often on transmit than receive. Hanging over her head are claims that a “dirty dossier” on her has been circulated, something about which she posted on Twitter/X last week. Her team breathed a sigh of relief that a biography by the former peer Michael Ashcroft, extracts of which appeared this weekend, contained no bombshell revelation.

It is understood, however, that The Guardian newspaper has an investigation, months in the making, ready to run in the next week, detailing claims about her behaviour in government. “They’ve had it for months,” a source said. Badenoch’s team say it is the product of a disgruntled former special adviser dismissed by Badenoch.

The fear is that it could unleash further leaks about her personal style, which is robust to say the least. A former cabinet colleague said: “I like that she will cross the road to start a fight, but not everyone does.”

An official on another campaign said: “Kemi means drama — and the last thing the party needs is more drama.” Another said: “Frontrunners always get shot at. The game is kill Kemi.”

Longstanding readers know that apart from 2019 a successful betting strategy is to lay the favourite in Tory leadership contests and I think 2024 may prove the same.

If Badenoch is damaged by the forthcoming Guardian revelations then I think Robert Jenrick and Dame Priti Patel will be the beneficiaries. Suella Braverman will not as she’s unlikely to garner enough nominations to stand.

I expect soon Robert Jenrick will become the favourite soon or possibly Tom Tugendhat who the Sunday Times says he probably has more votes than Kemi Badenoch already.

TSE