Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of Reform UK supporters, with those who had definitely made their minds up jumping from 45% to 54% after he returned as leader of the party

By contrast, it wasn't until much later in the campaign that… pic.twitter.com/UnEeTtyuwE

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 19, 2024

This polling confirms my theory that Rishi Sunak erred in holding a July election, had he waited until the autumn then Nigel Farage would have focussed his time and energies on being Donald Trump’s personal proctologist rather than focussing on the UK general election. Reform supporters must be toasting Sunak’s timing with a glass or two of Bucks Fizz.

This will be the stat that will haunts Sunak.

Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of Reform UK supporters, with those who had definitely made their minds up jumping from 45% to 54% after he returned as leader of the party By contrast, it wasn’t until much later in the campaign that many Lib Dem and Green supporters had definitely made their minds up.

TSE