A quick update on the 2024 PB Predictions Competition.

We now have the result for the UK General Election question which you may remember asked entrants to predict the election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%).

Answer: Labour 172 seat majority (±10% range = 155 to 189).

Four people guessed the Labour majority to within 10%: @Cyclefree @NickPalmer @TheWhiteRabbit and closest of all @GF2, whose guess was a Labour majority of 180.  Under the scoring rules they each get 20 points.

We’re going to give 10 points to the entrants who guessed majority to be within the range 90 to 254, which is the equivalent of guessing the Labour seat total within 10% (370 to 452).  That may seem generous but it still leaves 57 entrants scoring zero for this question.

With four out of 10 questions resolved, we currently have three people leading the competition on 50 points: @Cyclefree, @No_Offence_Alan and @TheWhiteRabbit.  Three others are equal fourth on 40 points.  There is still plenty to play for with six questions yet to be resolved.

Finally, a reminder of the 10 questions that were set, including the answers for those that are settled:

1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 

Answer: 11%, More in Common (7–11 Feb).           

2. Date of the next UK General Election. 

Answer: 4th July 2024.

3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called.

Answer: Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Swinney, Tice.

4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%).

Answer: Labour 172 seat majority (±10% range = 155 to 189).

5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems.

6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner.

7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024.

8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%).

9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn).

10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics (2020/21 = 64).

Ben Pointer