New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Savanta 28 Jun – 2 Jul (changes vs 21-25 Jun):

SNP ~ 34% (nc)
Lab ~ 31% (-3)
Con ~ 15% (+1)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
RUK ~ 6% (nc)
Grn ~ 3% (+1)

A spicy final-but-mostly-MoE poll from Savanta, to be sure; in 2021 they had biggest SNP *under*estimate! pic.twitter.com/nzhRIxLK65

— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) July 2, 2024

I have said for a while that I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP does better than expected. Support for independence hovers around the 50% mark and if those supporters want their priority to be independence then the SNP is the best vehicle for achieving secession.

My belief is that Sunak’s supermajority might end up damaging Labour but having no real benefit for the Tories as it might allow left leaning voters to vote SNP/Green/Lib Dem without risking getting the Tories out, this tends to back this up.

This poll is a stark contrast to the Survation MRP and a bit of an outlier but outliers in the past have turned out to be the most accurate poll.

TSE