Get the data: https://t.co/mjYqCxUrZj

— Survation. (@Survation) July 2, 2024

Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.

?? Westminster Voting Intention (28 June – 2 July):

Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)

Changes +/- 26-27 Junhttps://t.co/Gqxhaep27s pic.twitter.com/rSL165T2uk

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) July 2, 2024

So much for Rishi Sunak’s hung parliament talk, it truly is touch and go on who becomes the His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition after the election if the Survation MRP is correct. The key take for me is the 99% certainty that Labour will win more seats than 1997.

The good news for keeps on coming for Starmer with it looks like he has killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead for a generation.

But with the traditional voting intention polls there is some minor improvement for the Tories but they are on course for a regular shellacking.

In just over forty-eight hours we will see who becomes the gold standard pollster and which methodology is primus inter pares, these might be the last few MRPs we see for a while.

TSE