We are now less than 2 weeks to go to the election and postal ballots have already gone out. It is an unusual election, but surely it is the case that every election has unique aspects. When speculating on results, voter turnout may be a key issue. I see this as two issues really. The first is the overall turnout, and second is the turnout by different demographic groups. Will it be the young or the old? C2DE or ABC1? The right or the left parties that stay at home?

Overall turnout in GE has varied between a post-war high of nearly 84% in 1950 and a low of less than 60% in 2001. 

It’s difficult to draw very strong conclusions about the dips and peaks, but it looks to me that elections that appear to be close drive higher turnout than the previous one, and elections that appear to be a foregone conclusion when the starting gun is fired drive a lower turnout. The drop from 1992 to 1997 and again in 2001 seems in large part to Conservative voters not turning out. It also seems that voting (or not voting) are both habit forming and it takes some time for peaks and troughs to regress to the mean. It is notable though that all elections since 2001 have had turnouts in the 60-70% band. It isn’t in this graph but perhaps relevant to the stickiness of voting as a habit that the Brexit referendum reached above 70%, motivating voters who normally didn’t bother and some seemed to stay motivated.

Voting by party has always been different between the older and younger voters, but it is very noticeable how this divide has increased in recent years.

So a key consideration in looking at turnout is looking at which age range will turnout, and older voters are more likely to turnout, this is less marked than it once was. While the youngsters did not turnout in the post Brexit referendum votes as much as older voters they did turnout at higher rates than in previous General Elections, so maybe too much weight can be put on this. Indeed if older Tory voters go on strike the effect may be even less. It seems that Millennials and Gen X have finally started to vote.

There are factors that may well drive a lower turnout in this election, perhaps with the “foregone conclusion” and Conservative voter strike post 1992 pointing to a noticeable drop in turnout. 

A further factor may well be the new rules on Voter ID, which has always struck me as a solution in search of a problem, and does seem to have turned away 2% of voters at polling stations at recent Local Elections, possibly with more not setting out in the first place.

On the other hand there are factors pointing to a higher turnout, with active campaigns by parties outside the usual duopoly of Conservative and Labour, in particular by Reform and Gaza independents, that may well engage voters who otherwise do not. There is more than a whiff of Brexitmania behind the Faragasm, and perhaps a similar motivation to turn out. There is too a very real motivation to kick the government where it hurts from both Right and Left.

My own expectations are that the turnout will be in the 60%-70% range, and in view of previous elections a vote as baseline in the 65%-70% range most likely. The betting companies generally divide the bands into 2.5% segments, though Bet365 have 5% bands, and there are over/under bets too.

I have bets on the 65%-67.5% at 5/1, but there is a case that the ID requirement makes the 62.5-5% band value at 3/1, both with Ladbrokes, but similar on Betfair Exchange.

Foxy