Some very sage advice on reacting to the MRPs

19/6/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment

? Ok, here we go, @IpsosUK MRP using our online probability KnowledgePanel – only one of its kind this #GE2024
1. What's a probability panel? We select addresses randomly across the country and invite people to join. No one can join without being invited. https://t.co/OFNW4Cvzqg
— Alex Bogdan (@_AlexBogdan) June 18, 2024

3. But look at all those seats that are currently toss ups. We think 117 at the moment. Most of these are 2019 Con wins. Under FPTP, even a move of a couple of points during the remainder of this campaign can make a big difference…to the scale of the Tory defeat. pic.twitter.com/RsElbcF3Ef
— Alex Bogdan (@_AlexBogdan) June 18, 2024

Seriously, read the methods note. Or the political and data geniuses that are @GideonSkinner and @_Chris_D_Martin who worked v v hard on this will be upset. I would too. And we wouldn't want that.
— Alex Bogdan (@_AlexBogdan) June 18, 2024

Alex Bogdan worked on the Ipsos MRP and I advise you all to pay heed to her comment in the fourth tweet especially if you bet on this election

Full data here with maps and all. Of course you’re all sensible people and wouldn’t put too much weight on individual seat estimates because you know modelling can’t take into account all the complexities of local campaigns. I trust you all.

TSE

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Some very sage advice on reacting to the MRPs

19/6/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment